So let's use your revised numbers. You said previously that Juniper might book only $500 million of revenue for the year. And I said Cisco would probably book $20 billion. OK, so that's a ratio of 40:1. Still doesn't equal the ratio of CCIE's to JNCIE's (~7500 to 65, or ~115:1).
My point is that saying that Juniper is going to sell $750 million or $500 million or whatever is just re-arranging deck-chairs on the Titanic. It modifies the numbers, but doesn't change the essential analysis, which is that there seems to be a much lower supply of Juniper-trained people that more-than-compensates for the lower demand for them. Again, this is why UNIX people make more on average than Windows people, even though everybody knows there are more Windows jobs than UNIX jobs out there. ""Wes Stevens"" wrote in message [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > Just a couple of points: > > Cisco's sales on a quarterly basis bottomed last july. They have been > recovering since. Last quarter they actually beat the sales from the year > before. Fical year 02 which ends in july will be down 15% compared to > Juniper's 02 ending in dec which will be down 40%. The enterprise market is > in much better shape then the sp market. > > Cisco over paid badly for quite a few of their acquisitions. But they paided > for them with stock when it was at a very inflated price. That makes the > price they paid not nearly so bad. That they bought companies with products > that they really had no place for in their product lines is another issue. > What hurts with the two recent Juniper purchases is they were cash/stock > transactions with Juniper's stock sitting at very near it's all time low. > > Juniper re-issued employee stock options last week. It will be interesting > to see what effect that has from a stock point of view. > > As you point out they have the biggest and baddest router out there right > now. The company is not going away. But from a shareholder and a job > prospect point I think both are going to need patience for another year. > > >From: "nrf" > >Reply-To: "nrf" > >To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >Subject: Re: How do I approach the company about my CCIE [7:40261] > >Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2002 11:35:23 -0400 > > > >By no means am I a Juniper fanatic (nor am I a Cisco fanatic). But allow > >me > >to add some points here. > > > > > >""Wes Stevens"" wrote in message > >[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > > > Peter I have been following and trading Juniper stock for years. In the > > > beginning everyone loved it because it was so focused - just high end > > > routers. Two things came together in 2000 to help them grow sales 6x > >over > > > 1999 one was the massive build out of the telcos and the other was the > >fact > > > that they had a year lead on cisco for delivering 192 interfaces. > > > >Juniper's biggest opening was indeed due to the fact that Cisco was late in > >delivering its 192 interfaces. But even now that Cisco has its 124xx > >series out, Juniper's products still enjoy key technical advantages, as > >detailed in Lightreading and other studies. Perhaps the key advantage is > >that Cisco's routers (all series) have been notorious for having its > >performance drop precipitously whenever you turn on a significant number of > >services, something that does not happen with Juniper. Other advantages > >include faster BGP convergence and the ability to handle huge BGP route > >tables, which is important if you want to implement lots of RFC2547 VPN's. > >Not to mention the bizarre Engine 0/1/2/4 paradigm and of course the sheer > >brawn of the new Juniper T640 which Cisco will not match anytime soon. > > > >That's not to say that Cisco doesn't hold some advantages of its own. For > >example, Cisco's CoS implementation is more flexible. Cisco has some > >interesting fault-tolerance features with its DPT technology that Juniper > >does not have. And of course Cisco enjoys the advantages of being the > >incumbent, so that means that people are simply more familiar with their > >gear (but this can be looked at the other way too, as that makes the fact > >that Juniper has still managed to win significant share even more > >impressive). > > > > >In 2001 > > > the telco's started cutting back and juniper sales growth went to up 32 > >%, > > > but all of it came in the first half. Since mid year last year sales > >have > > > been dropping qtr over qtr. The biggest reason is the same reason the > > > analysts used to love it - focused only on the high end telco market. > >Well > > > the telco's are in a world of trouble. They are so deep in dept that > >most > > > will never climb out. Global xing bit the dust and it looks like wcom > >may > > > follow. Quest is in deep trouble too. Believe it or not the only hope > >for > >a > > > recovery in the next year is that these big guys go chapter 11 and then > > > reorg. All the investors get screwed but their debt goes away and they > >may > > > have some money to invest again. All of the major telcos cut capex for > >the > > > rest of this year and next in their first quarter report. > > > >Yes it is definitely true that the service-provider market is fuc*ed up > >now. > >But that's not to say that Cisco hasn't been hurt by this as well. In fact > >you may recall that 5 years ago or so Cisco's strategy to unseat the telco > >vendor incumbents at that time - Nortel, Lucent, Alcatel, Siemens, etc. - > >was to back "New-Economy" telcos, and this super-charged Cisco's growth > >through the late 90's. Now of course these new telcos are mostly dead. > > > >Now I do agree completely that Juniper is being hurt proportionately more > >than Cisco is being hurt by the telco wasteland. But that's not to say > >that > >Cisco isn't being hurt at all. > > > > >Juniper's also has > > > to deal with cisco now as they are going after that same market and have > > > taken share away in the last year. > > > >I disagree with this, in this way. Obviously I agree that Cisco has gained > >overall share for the simple reason that the whole provider subsegment is > >down. However, if you're talking about gaining share within that provider > >subsegment, then this unclear. The only studies that have shown such a > >thing > >is Dell'Oro, and these studies are problematic, specifically because they > >choose to include any router that is OC-192 capable is counted as a > >provider > >sale. Doesn't matter whether that router is actually sold to a provider or > >an enterprise. It also doesn't matter whether the actual OC192 interfaces > >themselves are sold, just the chassis. It's been well know that Cisco has > >sold quite a few of those 124xx routers to enterprises. And in fact, no > >significant Juniper customer has been lost to Cisco. So it's difficult > >to > >say using just Dell'Oro whether share within the provider subsegment was > >really gained or not. > > > > >This will be especially a problem in > > > markets outside the us where cisco already has a presence and juniper > >does > > > not. The last two purchases by Juniper say the reconize the problem as > >they > > > are trying to broaden their product line. But they paid too much for > > > Unishere and it will be dilutive this year. > > > >Well, I would say that if Cisco is calling Juniper too acquisitive, then > >it's really a case of the pot calling the kettle black. Cisco has been > >one of the most rapaciously acquisitive companies in history. And in fact > >much of the reason that Cisco has been so successful is precisely due to > >certain key acquisitions like the Crescendo acquisition. > > > >As far as paying too much, well, it's not like Cisco hasn't been guilty of > >this as well. Let's face it, certain acquisitions just didn't work for > >Cisco, remember Stratacom? Others worked from a strategy standpoint, but > >not from a financial standpoint. Cerent and Arrowpoint had fine products, > >and their technologies have been useful to fill key holes in Cisco's > >product > >line. But let's face facts. Arrowpoint was not worth $5.7 billion, and > >Cerent was not worth $7 billion. > > > > > > The bottom line is that the big telcos are in real trouble and there is > > > still a lot of competition and excess capacity out there. Their capex > > > spending is going to be the last thing to recover and along with it > >Juniper. > > > > > > Another good indication is in the job market. Go to dice.com or hotjobs > >and > > > do a search on jncie and ccie and see what you get for both. > > > >Already dealt with this point. > > > > > > > > > > > >From: "Peter van Oene" > > > >Reply-To: "Peter van Oene" > > > >To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > >Subject: Re: How do I approach the company about my CCIE [7:40261] > > > >Date: Tue, 28 May 2002 08:43:09 -0400 > > > > > > > >What leads you to believe that they "will be at the tail end of the > > > >recovery?" > > > > > > > >At 09:04 PM 5/27/2002 -0400, Wes Stevens wrote: > > > > >Jenny I assume you are talking about Juniper. I really don't know > > > >anything > > > > >about their cert. The company I know pretty well. I would not want to > >be > > > > >looking for a job in this market place with only Juniper experience. > > > >Juniper > > > > >will not go away for sure, but they will be at the tail end of the > > > >recovery > > > > >at best. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >From: "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" > > > > > >Reply-To: "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" > > > > > >To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > >Subject: Re: How do I approach the company about my CCIE [7:40261] > > > > > >Date: Mon, 27 May 2002 19:15:12 -0400 > > > > > > > > > > > >"A CCIE is still the highest networking cert and the only one that > >is > > > >not > > > >a > > > > > > > > > > > >paper cert. " > > > > > > > > > > > >I'll save nrf the trouble of saying this. > > > > > >Highest networking cert? Arguable. Depends how you define > >"highest". > > > >But > > > > > >it's certainly not a totally unreasonable claim. Only one that is > >not > > > >a > > > > > >paper cert? Hardly. Try doing a little more research. > > > > > >However, if you substitute "Cisco" for "networking" in your > >original > > > > > >sentence, it looks far more accurate. > > > > > > > > > > > >Cisco is not the only player, or even the only significant player, > >in > > > >the > > > > > >networking game. > > > > > > > > > > > >JMcL > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >----- Forwarded by Jenny Mcleod/NSO/CSDA on 28/05/2002 08:39 am > >----- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >"Wes Stevens" > > > > > >Sent by: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > >27/05/2002 11:40 pm > > > > > >Please respond to "Wes Stevens" > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > > cc: > > > > > > Subject: Re: How do I approach the company about my > > > >CCIE > > > > > >[7:40261] > > > > > >Is this part of a business decision process?: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >If you look at Cisco over the last 18 months compared to it's > > > >competitors > > > > > >it > > > > > >has done well. It's sales have dropped much less then most other > > > > > >networking > > > > > >companies and they have actually gained market share in all major > > > >areas. > > > > > >The > > > > > >major telco's built out way too fast and the growth did not come > >like > > > >they > > > > > > > > > > > >expected. But on the enterprise side companies took it a lot > >slower. > > > >This > > > > > >economy is starting a slow recovery. Next year things will pick up. > >It > > > > > >will > > > > > >never be like 1999 as you say, but we will get back to the point > >where > > > > > >there > > > > > >will be plenty of jobs. > > > > > > > > > > > >A CCIE is still the highest networking cert and the only one that > >is > > > >not a > > > > > > > > > > > >paper cert. We have seen a lot more numbers comming out these days, > >but > > > > > >Cisco doubled the number of lab seats in San Jose and RTP back in > > > >March. > > > > > >Add > > > > > >to that the one day lab and Sat and Sun testing and there are a lot > > > >more > > > > > >people taking the test. Cisco keeps track of the passing percent > >and > > > >will > > > > > >adjust the challenge of the lab if necessary. The other thing is we > > > > > >probably > > > > > >will see major changes in the lab before the end of the year. When > >they > > > > > >get > > > > > >rid of token ring who knows what goodies they will replace it with. > >It > > > > > >will > > > > > >take a while for the boot camps to adjust their programs to the new > > > >topics > > > > > > > > > > > >and the candidates that take the self study route will be searching > >for > > > > > >ways > > > > > >to cover the new material. There will be a big slow down for a > >while > >at > > > > > >that > > > > > >point. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >I guess my point is I do not see the value of the CCIE going the > >way > >of > > > > > >the > > > > > >microsoft certs. Thing will get better next year and the demand for > > > >CCIE's > > > > > > > > > > > >will raise. > > > > > > > > > > > >[snipped] > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >Important: This e-mail is intended for the use of the addressee > >and > > > >may > > > > > >contain information that is confidential, commercially valuable or > > > >subject > > > > > >to legal or parliamentary privilege. If you are not the intended > > > >recipient > > > > > >you are notified that any review, re-transmission, disclosure, use > >or > > > > > >dissemination of this communication is strictly prohibited by > >several > > > > > >Commonwealth Acts of Parliament. 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