> On 13 Nov 2019, at 19:31, Turtle Creek Software via Cocoa-dev 
> <cocoa-dev@lists.apple.com> wrote:
> 
> I made a rather bold statement about Cocoa being doomed.  Here's some
> background on where it came from.
> 
> Apple and Microsoft are both working on next-generation app development
> platforms, with the goal of having one dev library for desktop, tablet,
> phone and anything else.  Meanwhile, Mozilla also is working to extend
> WebAssembly from web to plain old CPUs. There may be others.
> 
> Here's Microsoft's page on WinUI:
> https://github.com/microsoft/microsoft-ui-xaml/blob/master/docs/roadmap.md
> 
> It has details. Timelines. ETAs. Links to GitHub projects. C++ support.
> Places to give feedback. Backwards compatibility. All things that make life
> easier for developers.
> 
> Meanwhile, here is Apple's dev page about SwiftUI:
> https://developer.apple.com/xcode/swiftui/
> 
> It sure looks pretty, but it's totally PR. The bit at the bottom presents
> SwiftUI as a mature and amazing technology for all Apple products (no
> desktop shown, but there's a laptop Mac). Simple past experience (i.e.
> cynicism) suggests that once there's a new tool, the old one is soon
> deprecated and eventually killed. It made things like the dearth of
> documentation and unchanged sample projects seem like foreshadowing.
> There's no timeline listed, but rumors are 2020 for ARM chips. That would
> be a good time for a SwiftUI pivot. If true, Cocoa is the new Carbon.
> 
> We have to plan 5 or 10 years ahead, because it takes that long to create
> an app and sell it for long enough to get payback. Unfortunately, with
> Apple that means guessing the future from rumor and marketing hype.

Realistically though, Apple has a mountain of code that uses Cocoa for its UI. 
They’re not going to rewrite it all to SwiftUI in the short term. For the same 
reason, Objective-C, C and C++ are going to be supported for a long time yet 
because there are huge piles of code in Apple that rely on it.

Sure, Cocoa will see less in the way of updates, but don’t expect it to 
actually disappear in that 5 year time frame.

Mike.

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