I'm excited to see a computer reach 1d as well. For me I'm waiting to see a bot hold a 1d rating consistently on kgs. Right now CrazyStone has been rated 1d briefly, but hasn't been able to maintain it. It's currently 1k.
I put a small table of the progress of a few bot's ratings on kgs at http://senseis.xmp.net/?KGSBotRatings I would like to see MogoTiTan play many rated games on KGS and see how it does there. Anyone have a few million dollars lying around to sponsor this? :) On Thu, Sep 4, 2008 at 10:48 AM, Don Dailey <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I meant to add that we cannot calculate an upper bound on it's strength > since there was only 1 game and it was a win. > > What I'm trying to determine is if we can say with a high degree of > confidence yet that computers have achieved the 1 dan level? This has > been kind of a holy grail of computer go in my opinion - even if it > wasn't directly articulated (or perhaps it was?) > > - Don > > > On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 11:38 -0400, Don Dailey wrote: > > It's difficult for me to understand this due to different ranking > > systems and pro ratings vs amateur ratings. I see here listed as a 4 > > dan player on this page: > > > > http://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/player/htm/ki000343.htm > > > > > > Is that 4 dan pro? My understanding is something like this: > > > > kyu player are casual players (or weak tournament players) > > > > low dan players are something like advanced amateurs or experts and weak > > masters in chess. > > > > Pro's are like super high dan players and there is not very much > > difference between ranks compared to regular dan players. I have heard > > that a 1d professional will beat a 9d professional with 3 or 4 stones. > > > > So a 1d pro is something like a 7 or 8d+ amateur? > > > > Is this all "roughly" correct? > > > > So I assume that Aoba Kaori is a 4d professional? That would relate to > > something in the ballpark of 9 or 10d amateur if there were such a > > thing. And with 8 stones handicap, this implies that CrazyStone did > > what a 2d+ would have done, or it is weaker than 2d but got lucky. So > > it's "performance rating" for that one game is lower bounded at around 1 > > or 2 dan. Since it won the game we could pick 2 dan as a better lower > > bound guess although since it won we do not have a reasonable upper > > bound guess on it's performance except our own credulity. > > > > Does what I said make any sense? I am not a go player and I'm not very > > comfortable with this guesswork. In chess, if you beat a player I am > > used to thinking in terms of setting a performance rating of around 400 > > ELO higher for that one game. I know this is not precise, but I also > > think of 400 ELO subtracted from the player you beat as a kind of > > "estimated" lower bound on your strength. If you beat a 2500 ELO chess > > player, it's a relatively safe bet that you are at least 2100 ELO in > > strength although technically there is a chance you could lose to > > anybody, even a random move generator. > > > > I know this isn't precise language, but how many ranks would give us > > around 90 - 95% confidence of superiority? If I beat a 5 dan player, > > could you say that it's "very likely" I am at least 3 dan in strength? > > > > I'm thinking that if we estimate Aoba at 10d amateur and CrazyStone wins > > with 8 stone handicap, it is roughly equivalent to beating a 2d player > > without handicap and that we can subtract 2 stones to say that with > > pretty high confidence CrazyStone is playing at least 1 kyu (but that's > > it's much more likely Crazy Stone is stronger than this - after all it > > performed in this one game at least as well as 2d player.) > > > > > > - Don > > > > > > > > > > On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 16:28 +0200, Rémi Coulom wrote: > > > terry mcintyre wrote: > > > > Congratulations! > > > > > > > > > > Thanks. > > > > > > > I'm dying for details! What was the time limit? > > > > > > The organizers asked that the program should play at a constant time > (30 > > > second) per move. The sgf file contains time stamps (you can see the > > > time with gogui, for instance). I don't know what was her time control, > > > but she apparently played at the same pace as the program. > > > > > > > Did the game end on time or by resignation at move 179? > > > > > > > > > > She resigned. > > > > > > > The pro was Aoba Kaori, yes? > > > > > > > > > > Yes. > > > > > > The only other information I have about the match are these pages in > > > Japanese: > > > > https://secure1.gakkai-web.net/gakkai/fit/program/html/event/event.html#6 > > > http://www.ipsj.or.jp/10jigyo/fit/fit2008/events.html#1-4-1 > > > > > > I hope the organizers can send me some photos tomorrow. Then I will set > > > up a web page and tell the list. > > > > > > Rémi > > > _______________________________________________ > > > computer-go mailing list > > > computer-go@computer-go.org > > > http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ > > > > _______________________________________________ > > computer-go mailing list > > computer-go@computer-go.org > > http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ > > _______________________________________________ > computer-go mailing list > computer-go@computer-go.org > http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ >
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