https://issues.apache.org/SpamAssassin/show_bug.cgi?id=6247

--- Comment #49 from Warren Togami <[email protected]> 2009-12-16 12:37:01 UTC 
---
Weekly Masscheck 20091216
=======================
# SUMMARY for threshold 5.0:
# Correctly non-spam: 246432  99.33%
# Correctly spam:     174605  93.82%
# False positives:      1670  0.67%
# False negatives:     11501  6.18%
# TCR(l=50): 1.958990  SpamRecall: 93.820%  SpamPrec: 99.053%

Old Scores
score HABEAS_ACCREDITED_COI 0 -8.0 0 -8.0
score HABEAS_ACCREDITED_SOI 0 -4.3 0 -4.3
score RCVD_IN_BSP_TRUSTED 0 -4.3 0 -4.3
score RCVD_IN_SSC_TRUSTED_COI 0 -3.7 0 -3.7

Weekly Masscheck 20091216, with HABEAS and BSP Disabled
==================================================
# SUMMARY for threshold 5.0:
# Correctly non-spam: 246431  99.33%
# Correctly spam:     174698  93.87%
# False positives:      1671  0.67%
# False negatives:     11408  6.13%
# TCR(l=50): 1.959877  SpamRecall: 93.870%  SpamPrec: 99.053%

Interestingly, we perform BETTER with the the whitelists turned off.  This is
indicative that spamassassin is well balanced and pretty safe against FP's even
before the whitelists come into play.

Weekly Masscheck 20091216, new RP rules
===================================
New Scores
score RCVD_IN_RP_CERTIFIED 0.0 -2.0 0.0 -2.0
score RCVD_IN_RP_SAFE 0.0 -3.0 0.0 -3.0

# SUMMARY for threshold 5.0:
# Correctly non-spam: 246432  99.33%
# Correctly spam:     174651  93.84%
# False positives:      1670  0.67%
# False negatives:     11455  6.16%
# TCR(l=50): 1.959939  SpamRecall: 93.845%  SpamPrec: 99.053%

Enabling the new RP rules made things slightly worse again, about mid-way
between disabled and the old rules.  This is an effective score of -5 for
CERTIFIED and -3 for SAFE.  This is the scoreset that we have voted to include
in spamassassin-3.3.0 where the cumulative score of CERTIFIED is -5.

Weekly Masscheck 20091216, new RP rules, doubled up
==============================================
New Scores
score RCVD_IN_RP_CERTIFIED 0.0 -5.0 0.0 -5.0
score RCVD_IN_RP_SAFE 0.0 -3.0 0.0 -3.0

# SUMMARY for threshold 5.0:
# Correctly non-spam: 246432  99.33%
# Correctly spam:     174631  93.83%
# False positives:      1670  0.67%
# False negatives:     11475  6.17%
# TCR(l=50): 1.959526  SpamRecall: 93.834%  SpamPrec: 99.053%

Just to satisfy your request, here is the same test with -5 for CERTIFIED. 
That is an effective score of -8 for CERTIFIED and -3 for SAFE.  Results are
not improved from the above.

Weekly Masscheck 20091216, all DNS whitelists disabled
=================================================
# SUMMARY for threshold 5.0:
# Correctly non-spam: 246431  99.33%
# Correctly spam:     174698  93.87%
# False positives:      1671  0.67%
# False negatives:     11408  6.13%
# TCR(l=50): 1.959877  SpamRecall: 93.870%  SpamPrec: 99.053%

Out of curiosity, I did the same test with all RP and DNSWL whitelists
disabled.  The results improved even further.  It seems that spamassassin is
just fine without the whitelists in FP safety.  I suspect however that the
whitelists are helpful in pushing the total scores over the edge in order to
trigger auto-learn.  Given this analysis I suspect the lower whitelist scores
in 3.3.0 are entirely appropriate.

I am next attempting to repeat this analysis with the larger mcsnapshot
masscheck logs instead of the most recent weekly masscheck.

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