In *Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions*, Gary Klein offers a case
study about a baby who almost died in a neonatal intensive care unit. There
were two nurses on duty: a shift leader with years of experience (I'll call
her Mary), and a trainee (Jill). One night while they were both on duty,
Jill noticed a subtle drop in a baby's temperature. She attributed the
change to coldness in the room, so she corrected the temperature in the
bassinet and forgot about it. A few minutes later, Mary looked at the same
baby, noted the temp change, but also noticed the baby's subtle color change
and reduced fussiness, which Jill had missed. From experience, Mary
recognized the signs of onset sepsis and started the emergency protocol that
would save the baby's life.

In the post review, Mary was angry at the Jill for missing the "obvious"
signs of trouble. Later, however, Mary realized her own mistake: the
underestimation of her own experience, leading to her over-expectation that
someone else could "get it" in a few weeks.

Was Mary not good at her job? Should Jill handle the NICU by herself? After
all, it costs less to staff 2 people, and Jill seems reasonably smart and
eager to learn.

Maybe the question isn't so much "who's a better risk, an experienced person
or an inexperienced person." Maybe the question is, "How does a person
measure the depth of their experience, and market it appropriately".

-Gloria


Time magazine did a cover story once about the importance of the
> "experience" argument in the presidential campaign. They cited studies
> where
> very experienced nurses fared no better than less experienced nurses in
> making life or death decisions, and often fared worse. They found that
> experienced practitioners relied more on habit while less experienced
> practitioners were more prone to examine all the information available
> (albeit quickly).
>
> As a result, either group was just as likely to kill a patient.
>
> -r-
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