> I think there are major opportunities for early-adopter telcos and musicians,
> and in between cool things like 2cw.org > JMR
Not only are there major opportunities, there are also numbers of
companies who are going to go the way of their other .com counsins.
Someone ought to do/flesh out a piece describing how Bertelsmann/Napster
is going to screw up crash and burn if it attempts to become a for-pay
service and fails to accept AUG.
They think that since millions of people downloaded the Napster client
that
their value equation is favorable. But the value equation has been:
A) mess around with a download and install and learn an interface, in
order
to get
B) music that otherwise would cost money
So if people now will be required to pay, they won't be willing to pay big
amounts. So we are talking micropayments in the range of USD 0.05 - 0.25
for a session, or monthly payments in the range of USD 5 - 10.
If they try to accept both plastic (for automatic recurring monthly, ala
subscription) plus electronic currencies (for impulse purchases), and they
accept PayPal, no one who has plastic is going to jump all the hurdles to
create, validate, and load a PayPal account just to buy music that used to
be free [and for which free communities will again emerge, btw, in .org
competition with Napster]. Its the basic loading problem that PayPal has -
no one is willing to hold funds on account there unless they are:
1) given funds for free, or
2) they want to buy something that is sole source from someone who takes
nothing but PayPal (an eBay auction, as almost solitary example).
Whereas, as we know, people pay spread to obtain and hold AUG balances
even
in the absence of places to spend it.
On the other hand if Napster accepts e-gold and/or SR-gold:
a) they get progeny (e-gold) or agency incentives (SR)
b) costs are lower than PayPal merchant
c) it is truly worldwide
d) they can re-sell all they take in at a mark-up, or use OmniPay, or
Standard
Reserve debit as OutExchange mechanisms to mobilize value
e) people already have balances burning a hole in their pockets, and the
only reason there aren't millions more such people is lack of big name
strategic allies.
Elwyn Jenkins
++
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