>In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>,
>[EMAIL PROTECTED] (Radford Neal) wrote:
>
>> Of course, there surely must have been some legitimate votes missed in
>> the machine recount. But there also surely must be some "votes" being
>> counted that do not reflect the actual intent of the voter, and it
>> seems quite likely that the number of such mis-assigned votes is
>> greater for the manual recount of ambiguous ballots than for the
>> machine count of ballots that seemed unambiguous to the machine. So
>> you would *expect* the split to be closer to 50-50 if there is no
>> bias. The question is whether the amount by which it has moved closer
>> to 50-50 is suspiciously small. I think this can be answered only by
>> some procedure that brings in additional information, such as an
>> independent audit of a random sample of the recounted ballots.
In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>,
Virgil <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>If the untallied votes are dimpled but not perforated, I, at least,
>would expect 2/3 of the dimples to be in Gore chads and only 1/3 in Bush
>chads.
>
>If approximately 2/3 of the tallied votes were for Gore, by what leap of
>logic do you conclude that 1/2 of the untallied votes would have been
>for Bush?
I didn't. If you actually read the passage you quoted, you will see
that I concluded that one would expect the division to be *closer* to
1/2 each than for the clearly marked ballots. If you mix a certain
number of valid ballots with 1/3 - 2/3 proportions with another group
of invalid ballots, in which votes have been assigned randomly, in
1/2 - 1/2 proportions, the proportions for the whole group will not
be 1/3 - 2/3, but rather will have shifted toward 1/2 - 1/2.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Radford M. Neal [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Dept. of Statistics and Dept. of Computer Science [EMAIL PROTECTED]
University of Toronto http://www.cs.utoronto.ca/~radford
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