Jordan Ellenberg, in today's Slate, PROVES that Bonds won't break the
HR record because of regression to the mean. The argument is a
little sloppy, but there is definitely some RTM involved:
"If our discussion above is correct, then hitters who
lead the major leagues in home runs at the All-Star break should
tend to decline in the second half of the season. ...
Of the 74 hitters involved (there are more hitters than years because of
ties) only 12 equaled their pre-break production in the second
half...
I'd be curious if reduction in the 1st half leaders was comparable to the
improvement in the 2nd half leaders.
The link:
http://slate.msn.com/math/01-07-12/math.asp
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