At 02:16 AM 9/29/01 +0000, John Jackson wrote: >For any random inverval selected, there is a .05% probability that the >sample will NOT yield an interval that yields the parameter being estimated >and additonally such interval will not include any values in area >represented by the left tail. Can you make different statements about the >left and right tail?
unless CIs work differently than i think ... about 1/2 the time the CI will miss to the right ... and 1/2 the time they will miss to the left ... thus, what if we labelled EACH CI with a tag called HIT ... or MISSleft ... or MISSright ... for 95% CIs ... the p of grabbing a CI that is HIT from all possible is about .95 ... the p for getting MISSleft PLUS MISSright is about .05 ... thus, about 1/2 of the .05 will be MISSleft and about 1/2 of the .05 will be MISSright so, i don't see that you can say anything differentially important about one end or the other >"Michael F." <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message >[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > > (Warren) wrote in message: > > > > > So, what is your best way to explain a CI? How do you explain it > > > without using some esoteric discussion of probability? > > > > I prefer to focus on the reliability of the estimate and say it is: > > > > "A range of values for an estimate that reflect its unreliability and > > which contain the parameter of interest 95% of the time in the long run." > > > > >================================================================= >Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about >the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at > http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ >================================================================= ============================================================== dennis roberts, penn state university educational psychology, 8148632401 http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/drober~1.htm ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =================================================================
