there are two sets of data ... one for georgeDUBU ... and the elder george bush
here is what i glean from the charts for george w ... the EVENT was sept 11 ... for the elder george bush ... the EVENT was the gulf war ... and both were before and after ratings 1. whites approval rating for BOTH ... was much higher than blacks 2. both whites and blacks jumped rather dramatically (in the 30 percent range) on AFTER compared to BEFORE 3. to me, proportionate would be "both increasing" the same approximate % ... disproportionate would imply large differentials in % changes ... in neither case were the % jumps the same ... for each bush ... before and after ... comparing whites and blacks (assuming the data reported in the video is correct) ... so TECHNICALLY ... it is disproportionate ... but ... what about "approximately" ??? i think it is a matter of practical differences and semantics ... not really statistically significant differences ... given the ns ... it is possible that the difference in THE differences MIGHT have been significant ... here are the values george w ... WHITES pre post change 60 90 30 BLACKS 33 68 35 elder george WHITES 64 90 26 BLACKS 33 70 37 difference between w/b for geore w = 31 versus 35 difference between w/b for elder george = 26 versus 37 now, i would be willing to say that there is less difference in change for george w than the elder george ... in viewing the video ... i did not see that the person really said anything categorical about this ... he used the term "roughly" ... just depends if the VIEWER of the video and data wants to think that 4% verus 11% means "roughly" the same change ... or not thus, i don't think the moderator said anything really wrong ... At 04:27 PM 1/10/02 +0000, EugeneGall wrote: >The Gallup organization posted a video to explain why the the increase in >black's job approval for Bush is 'proportionate' to the increase among >whites. >Both increased by about 30% (60 to 90 for whites, mid thirties to roughly 70% >for blacks), so the increase is proportionate, not disproportionate, since >both >increases were about 30%. Unless I'm missing something, and I don't think I >am, this proportionate - disproportionate error is repeated and emphasized >several times in the video. > >http://www.gallup.com/poll/Multimedia/video/archived/2002/01/vr020108b.ram > >Gene Gallagher >UMASS/Boston > > >================================================================= >Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the >problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at > http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ >================================================================= _________________________________________________________ dennis roberts, educational psychology, penn state university 208 cedar, AC 8148632401, mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/drober~1.htm ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =================================================================
