2011/10/12 Clay Shentrup <c...@electology.org> > On Wednesday, October 12, 2011 1:04:13 AM UTC-7, Jameson Quinn wrote: >> >> In that sim, Range elected 13279/29999 CWs, and Median elected >> 12472/29999. This is a significant difference, but not a huge one. On the >> other hand are two effects: >> 1. Range's greater strategy incentive >> 2. The tendency for voters to polarize, giving exactly one of the two >> frontrunners an *honest* rating near zero. This is a *separate* effect >> from strategic exaggeration. If true, this tendency increases the >> probability that an honest median vote is strategically strongest, but does >> not do as much for Range. >> > > These are both not true. The strategy with MJ is to polarize, to maximize > the chance that (if your score is the median) you increase or decrease it as > much as possible (up to or down to the next closest score). >
Warren and I had a long technical discussion about strategy incentive in MJ versus range. He did some clever calculations, and I picked holes in them, and we repeated it for several rounds. At the end we hadn't quite completely converged on a consensus, but we both agreed that Range had a greater strategy incentive than MJ. That result seems more robust than a bald assertion from you. The point is, even with zero information on a particular candidate, you have a pretty good historical benchmark for the median scores of the first and second place candidates. Outside of that range, you have a safe leeway to be honest. And many voters (more than chance) have strong enough opinions about the frontrunners that they already honestly straddle that range. > And it seems that MJ reacts much worse to such plausible behaviors. > ??? What are you even talking about? If everyone exaggerates, MJ and range are identical; they're both approval. And if a fixed X% of voters exaggerate, it has a bigger effect on Range than MJ; that's an implication Warren's result that I mentioned above. So you're 180 degrees wrong here. > > Why do these myths about strategy resistance with MJ persist? > >> No comment. Jameson
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