I think that introducing the third factor is good, but care is needed.  We
have S-factor, L-factor and A-factor, but 'avoidability' is a positive word
and doesn't go well with the biggest number meaning the worst case. 
 
It might be better to change the third factor to Unavoidability, so all
three factors work in the same way. But I think we still need to know S*L as
well as S*L*U in order to get the full picture. Multiplication actually
discards (or hides, often irretrievably) data, a point to bear in mind when
considering any algorithm.
 
I agree that the actual scale doesn't matter technically, it's just that big
numbers are more likely to register with powerful non-technical people. 'On
a scale of 1 to 125, the SLU is only 5'  or 'On a scale of 1 trillion, the
SLU is only 4%.'
 
From: ce-test, qualified testing bv - Gert Gremmen
[mailto:g.grem...@cetest.nl] 
Sent: Thursday, April 14, 2016 12:52 PM
To: EMC-PSTC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG
Subject: Re: [PSES] SV: [PSES] EU's new approach directive transitions
 
In the medical RA where I got a bit of experience a third factor is used  to
classify the avoidability of risk.
Avoidability of the risk.
So the risk number is  severity times likelihood times avoidability (why
doesn't MS Word like this word ?)
- To use the comet example, it cannot be avoided, so risk number 5.
- A chain saw approaches rather quick, but can be avoided if vigilant, so
number 4.
- The user gets  tired , so stop using the chain saw, can be number 2
- Avoid getting pinched by the elevator door is easy so number 1
The exact numbers  makes no difference, as long as the scale is the same for
all your projects.
RA is not to make a difference between, just to prioritize risks.
if too much risk end up with the same number, just extend the scale 1-10 or
1-100 if you need to.
Once you see the list of risks ordered, it is more easy to say:
"Below a risk number of 20 I feel safe, and above we will (try to) fix them"
The RA process is thus an iterative process, governed by the risk management
process.
The RA process might be need repetition for different users, such as
operators
service agents
domestic animal (yes! LVD)
third age and disabled people 
children
 
Regards,
Ing. Gert Gremmen
Approvals manager
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From: John Woodgate [mailto:jmw1...@btinternet.com] 
Sent: Thursday 14 April 2016 12:48
To: EMC-PSTC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG <mailto:EMC-PSTC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG> 
Subject: Re: [PSES] SV: [PSES] EU's new approach directive transitions
A scale of 1 to 5 has been considered too coarse, but again 'where to stop?'
1 to 1000 gives, perhaps, a better impression of the RA of a comet strike to
non-technical managers and politicians, but in these days of big numbers,
there is a case for 1 to 1 million. 
From: McCallum, Andy [mailto:andy.mccal...@mottmac.com] 
Sent: Thursday, April 14, 2016 10:02 AM
To: EMC-PSTC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG <mailto:EMC-PSTC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG> 
Subject: Re: [PSES] SV: [PSES] EU's new approach directive transitions
Rich
If you have not done a risk assessment previously it can be daunting - where
do you draw the line with "what if".
In the UK rail industry an example could be "What happens if the train is
hit by a comet". Answer everyone dies. So what mitigation can you do - run
trains in tunnels deep in rock so the train is protected. That's not
practical so the ALARP principal is introduced (As low as reasonably
practical). Also risk is about the likelihood of an event - so a comet
strike chances of happening are so low that it can be ignored.
Your RA could be enormous if  you tried to include every risk that was
possible (rumour is someone did consider a comet strike but I have not seen
it!).
So product knowledge and common sense need to be applied. Consider the risks
for your product assign them a risk rating ( say 1 - 5 where 1 is no risk
and 5 is risk of death) and then assign a likelihood (1 is incredibly
unlikely and 5 is a daily occurrence). Multiply 1 by the other and you have
a risk score somewhere between 1 and 25. So a comet strike is likely to a
consequence of death (score 5) but is incredibly unlikely (Score 1) total
risk score 5. Any reasonable mitigation? No that's the best you will get
move on the next risk.
Hope that helps
Andy




From: Gary Swale [mailto:gary.sw...@ditchwitch.com] 
Sent: 14 April 2016 00:48
To: EMC-PSTC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG <mailto:EMC-PSTC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG> 
Subject: Re: [PSES] SV: [PSES] EU's new approach directive transitions
>>I don't have experience in RA, so I guess I can't do it.<<
No, not experience in RA, experience and knowledge about the product. The RA
is all about presenting "what if" scenarios to product experts and the
experts then work to lower the risk through design, safeguards, and
information.
________________________________________
From: Richard Nute [ri...@ieee.org]
Sent: Wednesday, April 13, 2016 6:19 PM
To: Gary Swale; EMC-PSTC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG
<mailto:EMC-PSTC@LISTSERV.IEEE.ORG> 
Subject: RE: [PSES] SV: [PSES] EU's new approach directive transitions
 
 
". Risk Assessment is a qualitative (estimate based on experience) venture."
 
I don't have experience in RA, so I guess I can't do it.  I guess I have to
hire someone who has RA experience.
 
This is very much like the certification house manager who told me that
product safety is an art that takes many years (and products) of experience
to master.  As a product manufacturer (compared to a certification house),
my experience is limited and I would not likely master the art.
 
 
Rich
 
 
 
 
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