I think there's a danger of diving in too deep with science. I mean 'biology lessons' literally - with a bit of a twist. I agree on the usual science types in psychology-sociology. This is my take on the practice as a whole - http://www.alternet.org/media/propaganda-system-has-helped-create-permanent-overclass-over-century-making?paging=off
What I have in mind are biology stories like the life-cycle of Lyme's disease. Humans move into woodland and wolves leave. This causes an eco-chain collapse that leaves mice, via connection with coyotes (and a lot more) doing rather well, and by more connections in the disease life-cycle to human getting the disease. It's well complex. Twist is to look at a financial chain after this lesson. Parasitism is the most common life-style on earth - twist discuss 'economic rents'. Ants take slaves - these slaves rebel in a very altruistic manner to save others of their species - twist - discuss the work saving adaptation and debt peonage in the human condition. Various statistical approaches spring to mind - twist - they help in describing the reality of observations - discuss how complex maths in finance loses this reality connection. One can think back to Hume and Mach here - applied to the 'real' bit of atoms being the spreadsheet of recorded observations, not the model of something we never see - you should be well into that - twist - loo at big company accounts that don't reveal ecological damage and human costs locally - why does science try to include everything and yet finance rely on making a lot external? There's lots more - notably the role and definition of work in science. Beyond this I know I've taught many fools to use frequency distributions and quants generally - but very few to work out how to find out if the formulas are in any way inclusive of the right variables and how they collate. There's a good topical example. The gold price crashed before Lehman and did so again over the last week (worse). So we might see crash two tomorrow or shortly - but I have to say I have no full correlation. My actual guess here is that this is insider stuff - the price ramped by people who knew they were going to short it. Goldman and others were telling their muppets to buy but are now short themselves on the position. I think markets were rigged pre-Lehman and more so now so I'm not sure a gold drop means the same thing now. On 15 Apr, 15:49, nominal9 <nomin...@yahoo.com> wrote: > I think the biology lessons can help change the way we describe our > economic problems Nom. I doubt sensible people would allow economics > if they knew what it was. / Archytas.... > > Did I sound a bit "short" above?... sorry if I did.....I like to think I > admit my ignorance readily enough, and am open to the cure.... please tell > me how biology lessons can help "us" describe our economic problems, > further.... if you are inclined to tutor a sometimes "lazy" student (true > enough I assure ya)..... > > I have to admit, though.... that the standard "psychological" or > "sociological" theories usually make me rebellious... you know my own > background.....literature and history, philosophy and rhetorical logic and > such.....especially nominalism.... I like to"prefer" the ability of > individual choice and liberty of free will in most or all things... etc. > > I remember some of the "older" psychological theories of human motivation > and development.....http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow%27s_hierarchy_of_needs > > I think this system above pretty much encapsulates (or generates) most of > the notions..... > > The later.... attachment theory...seems adapted toward early > developmenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attachment_theory > I suppose are more up to date and accepted... but I was more familiar with > the "freudian" (?) oral versus anal classifications.... (Always got a > chuckle out of that, myself)..... > > Anyway... my same criticism applies.....to much "regimentation" in the > theoretical "categories".... not enough leeway for human inttellect and > free will in development... > > Dare I say it? (HAR, of course I dare).....It always seemed to me that the > "scientific" sociologists and psychologists were more interested or adept > at potty training puppies than they were at rearing human beings... > > > > > > > > On Tuesday, March 26, 2013 11:18:57 AM UTC-4, nominal9 wrote: > > > Bail-Ins instead of Bail-Outs....there you go.... > > > somebody's finally thinking.... contrary logic.... > > > HAR HAR HAR HAR. > > > I like it.... > > > the U.S. should go back and "bail in" the Wall Street banks and trading > > firms..... > > >http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/26/eurozone-banks-bailouts-idU... > > > Cyprus rescue marks "game-changer" for Europe's banks > > > - > > - inShare > > - Share this > > - > > - Email > > - Print > > > Related News > > > - Global shares, euro checked by Cyprus bailout > > nerves<http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/26/us-markets-global-idUSBRE88...> > > 9:17am EDT > > - WRAPUP 10-Cyprus leader hails bailout, but banks stay > > closed<http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/25/eurozone-cyprus-idUSL5N0CH0...> > > Mon, Mar 25 2013 > > - Shares, euro retreat as Cyprus deal stirs > > unease<http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/25/us-markets-global-idUSBRE88...> > > Mon, Mar 25 2013 > > - Analysis: Cyprus rescue raises new questions about euro's long-term > > > > survival<http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/25/us-eurozone-cyprus-contagio...> > > Mon, Mar 25 2013 > > - Cyprus and EU agree draft proposal to rescue > > banks<http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/24/us-cyprus-parliament-idUSBR...> > > Sun, Mar 24 2013 > > > Analysis & Opinion > > > - One-off or > > precedent?<http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/2013/03/26/one-off-or-precedent/> > > - The Dijsselbloem > > Principle<http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/03/25/the-dijsselbloem-pri...> > > > Related Topics > > > - Investing and Taxes Simplified > > »<http://www.reuters.com/subjects/investing-simplified> > > - Financials » <http://www.reuters.com/sectors/financials> > > > By Steve Slater > > > LONDON, March 26 | Tue Mar 26, 2013 10:13am EDT > > > (Reuters) - If the bailout of Cyprus is a template for European rescue > > deals it marks a "game-changer" for banks that could raise funding costs, > > see deposits shift more quickly and delay the prospect of higher > > dividends<http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets/dividends?lc=int_mb_1001> > > . > > > Europe signalled this week that large depositors would shoulder part of > > the cost of future bank bailouts after savings over 100,000 euros were > > targeted in the Cyprus rescue package. That sent bank share prices falling > > and pushed up the cost of insuring bank debt against default. > > > "Bail-in is thus replacing bail-out. As a consequence, the cost of bank > > funding will increase, bank deposits will become less sticky, and banks > > must hold more equity capital to reassure their creditors," said Nick > > Anderson, analyst at Berenberg. > > > "The elephant in the room has been spotted at last." > > > Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the Eurogroup of euro > > zone<http://www.reuters.com/subjects/euro-zone?lc=int_mb_1001> > > finance <http://www.reuters.com/finance> ministers, said on Monday that > > in future, the currency bloc should first ask banks to recapitalise > > themselves, then look to shareholders and bondholders and then "if > > necessary" to uninsured deposit holders. > > > "Now that the crisis is fading out, I think we need to dare a little more > > in dealing with this," he said. > > > In addition to big depositors, senior bondholders in Cyprus's > > second-largest bank, Laiki, will be wiped out and holders of senior paper > > in the largest lender, Bank of Cyprus, will also be hit. > > > In previous packages for Greece <http://www.reuters.com/places/greece>, > > Ireland <http://www.reuters.com/places/ireland?lc=int_mb_1001>, > > Portugal<http://www.reuters.com/places/portugal?lc=int_mb_1001>and Spain, > > leaders were unwilling to force losses on either senior > > bondholders or savers for fear of prompting flight from banks across the > > region. > > > Under new EU regulations, senior bondholders would bear part of the cost > > of future bank bailouts but that provision is not due to be enforced before > > 2015. Non-eurozone member Denmark is the only EU state to impose losses on > > senior bondholders in recent years, but after its banks were shut out of > > debt markets <http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets?lc=int_mb_1001> in > > 2011 it has moved to limit the likelihood of such losses. > > > Europe's banking index was down nearly 0.6 percent by 1310 GMT, adding to > > a 1.9 percent fall on Monday and putting it on course for a fourth > > successive daily fall. > > > Banks in Italy <http://www.reuters.com/places/italy> and Spain, two > > countries at the heart of the euro > > zone<http://www.reuters.com/subjects/euro-zone?lc=int_mb_1001>crisis, were > > among the biggest fallers with UniCredit and Spain's BBVA down > > over two percent. Italian regional lender Banca Carige had slid over three > > percent. > > > The cost of insuring European banks' senior bonds against default rose, > > with the Markit iTraxx senior financials index widening 14 basis points to > > 181. The index for subordinated bonds - riskier as they rank behind senior > > debt if a bank is wound up - widened 20 basis points to 302 basis points. > > > Critics of the action on Cyprus said it had re-established the link > > between weak banks and weak sovereigns and could scare depositors, but > > others said it was long overdue. > > > "Finally the EU is doing the right thing. If you take risk, if you're an > > equity holder, a bondholder, or an uninsured depositor, you should be at > > risk," said Simon Maughan, analyst at Olivetree Securities. "It is the > > bailing out of the bondholders that has been the biggest problem throughout > > these bailouts." > > > Maughan said there were still risks in Spain, > > Italy<http://www.reuters.com/places/italy?lc=int_mb_1001>and possibly > > France <http://www.reuters.com/places/france>. "The only way to deal with > > them would be to make the investors that put money in in the first place to > > front up," he said. > > > "WAKE-UP CALL" > > > Deposits above 100,000 euros have been at risk since the level of > > guarantee was raised and reinforced during the 2008/09 financial crisis. > > Cyprus is a reminder that above that level depositors are effectively > > unsecured creditors. > > > Savers are more likely than ever to spread their cash around, analysts > > said. > > > "It's a wake-up call... and deposits are likely to be more fluid if you > > see a risk emerging," Maughan said. > > > "It is now rational for ... depositors to move their money to stronger > > non-Eurozone banking jurisdictions such as the UK or Switzerland," said > > Andrew Lim, analyst at Espirito Santo. > > > Mike Harrison, analyst at Barclays, said the Cyprus events could also > > speed up plans for countries to establish pre-funded schemes for deposit > > insurance. > > > "This could be a catalyst to more harmonisation of the pre-funding of the > > scheme," he said. > > > Bondholders are likely to be more alert to risks too. > > > "The concept of bail-in appears to be happening quicker than perhaps > > people had anticipated. It feels that with Cyprus it is potentially now > > grinding closer in theory and in practice," Harrison said. > > > That is likely to increase volatility, especially for banks seen as more > > at risk, and result in greater differentiation in borrowing costs for > > strong names like HSBC versus more risky banks such as Italy's Monte Dei > > Paschi, which has received a 4 billion euro Italian state bailout. > > > The yield on Monte dei Paschi's senior debt rose 41 basis points to 5.16 > > percent early last week after an initial plan to tax Cyprus bank deposits > > was announced. It has since bounced around from 4.80 percent on Monday to 5 > > percent on Tuesday. In contrast, senior debt for HSBC remained steady at > > around 1.5 percent. > > > Banks may have to hold back on lifting dividends if investors demand they > > hold another buffer on top of minimum capital requirements, analysts said. > > That could dent hopes of a possible rise > > ... > > read more » -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Epistemology" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to epistemology+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to epistemology@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/epistemology?hl=en. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
