We started our EV journey with our Solectria Force in 1997, and after
retiring our Force after 21 (!) years (due to rust; all the EV
components work like new and are in storage) we drive a Tesla Model 3.
After all those years of driving one of the few EVs in the state of
Wisconsin, it's kind of surreal to be driving through our little city of
11,000 and seeing multiple Model Ys (and Model 3s) driving around or
parked in driveways. Seeing the recent sales numbers on Model Ys, it
does look like Musk's prediction will be spot-on. It's just awesome to
see EVs becoming mainstream.
Our Saturday morning ritual here is to watch the Electrek podcast on
YouTube while having breakfast. This week they mentioned that GM is
killing the Bolt, which is their most popular EV. We paused the video
and talked a bit about how GM totally screwed the pooch when they killed
the EV-1 (which we rented and drove in California back in 1999 or so) --
they could absolutely have OWNED the EV market if they had kept going.
Now an upstart like Tesla is wiping up the floor with them because they
didn't have any foresight or a vision of a future beyond ICE. And Toyota
has been fighting the inevitable future, trying to kill EV incentives.
And Ford is making an attempt to move forward, but getting NEGATIVE 40
percent margins on their EVs. All the big auto industry players should
have seen the writing on the wall, but kept their blinders on and now
they're scrambling to catch up -- they never set up the kind of vertical
integration Tesla has, nor did they make any deals for raw battery
materials. And one reason Tesla is kicking ass with never-before-seen
auto industry margins on the Model Y is their relentless, continuous
manufacturing improvements like the single front and rear castings.
The legacy ICE manufacturers are true dinosaurs and will be a textbook
example of how companies with no vision will be extinct. As for GM,
makers of the abomination of the Hummer EV, who in the name of crushing
the CARB mandates snatched all the EV-1s from the owners who were
begging to be able to keep them, and crushed them, I say "good
riddance". I'm no big Elon Musk fan, but it's just a dream to see that
the Model Y is on its way to being the most popular car of any kind in
the world.
-Tom
On 4/22/2023 1:33 PM, paul dove via EV wrote:
Elon Musk May Have Been Right, His Tesla Model Y Guess Could Come True
Tesla CEO Elon Musk often gets to prove to people that he was right all along,
and another such opportunity may come soon enough.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said some time ago that the Model Y would outsell all of
Tesla's other cars, and by a wide margin. This came as a surprise since it's
much more expensive than the popular Model 3. The CEO went on to predict that
the Model Y would eventually become the best-selling car in the world. Many
people thought he was crazy, but there's a much better chance of it actually
happening than you might think.
When the Tesla Model Y first debuted, it was a bit of a disappointment to many
people. The entire unveiling ceremony revolved around the history of Tesla, and
the electric crossover was barely present. When it was finally shown, it wasn't
shown in great detail, and there was no look at the third row. All you could
really tell was that it wasn't much more than an inflated Model 3.
That said, the Model Y has been selling exceedingly well across the globe. In
fact, it already made some top sales lists in 2022, and Tesla's sales stand to
be much stronger in 2023. While many people love to pick on Elon Musk for his
wild ideas and terrible timelines, he often proves them wrong. Sure, there are
some promises Musk has made that have come true very late or still not come to
fruition, but many of his dreams people doubted years ago are already a reality.
If all continues to move forward as it has thus far this year, Musk could have another
"I told you so" moment.
According to Electrek, Musk said in 2016 that the Model Y would create demand
for 500,000 to 1,000,000 units per year and eventually become the world's
best-selling passenger car of any kind. Keep in mind, it didn't even come to
market until 2020. In 2022, Tesla noted that the Model Y would soon keep pace
with the top-selling Toyota Corolla, which sees some ~1.2 million units sold
per year.
Tesla could inform us during its upcoming earnings meeting that the Model Y is
already on track to become the best-selling car in the world as early as this
year. It topped all rivals in China, the world's biggest automotive market, for
Q1 2023. Meanwhile, in the world's second-largest car market, the US, early
data points to the Model Y being the best-selling passenger car for the quarter.
The Model Y is also breaking sales records in many European markets, and Tesla
has ramped up its production at Giga Berlin to 5,000 copies per week. Tesla is
also ramping up production at Giga Texas while constantly making tweaks and
upgrades in Fremont and Shanghai.
Tesla aims to produce some 1.8 million EVs globally in 2023, though Musk has
said the company could possibly achieve 2 million. If everything falls into
place as planned, the Model Y has a very good chance of being the best-selling
car in the world.
What do you think? Leave us your words of wisdom in the comment section below.
On Saturday, April 22, 2023, 4:56 AM, EV List Lackey via EV <ev@lists.evdl.org>
wrote:
Chinese EV dominance hastens end of petrol engine era
Issued on: 22/04/2023 - 09:14
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230422-chinese-ev-dominance-hastens-
end-of-petrol-engine-era
or https://v.gd/YYqNoM
"This year's Shanghai Auto Show signalled the end of the petrol engine era
in China, as domestic electric vehicle brands drive change across the sector
and leave foreign companies in the dust, analysts and industry insiders
said.
"Government support for EVs and growing interest from a vast consumer base
has assured Chinese companies' dominance of their home market, the world's
largest -- and they are now beginning to set their sights overseas.
***
"According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, electric
vehicles made up a quarter of car sales in the country in 2022, a year-on-
year increase of 94 percent.
***
"China has dedicated huge resources to the industry.
"They skipped developing petrol engines because they can't compete with the
rest of the world," said Richards. "So they thought: '(With EVs) we can get
a head start in front of everyone else'."
***
"The supporting infrastructure was built too -- the government says there
are now more than 5.8 million charging piles in China. Guangdong province
alone has around three times as many public chargers as the whole of the
United States, according to Bloomberg data.
***
Some are smashing the cash barrier that put EVs beyond the means of the
average consumer. In Shanghai, China's Geely exhibited its boxy Panda Mini -
- including a bright yellow one with the phrase "what the duck" emblazoned
on its side. The cheaper versions cost around $5,800.
"In the future, homegrown technology could drive prices down even further.
Battery giant CATL has developed a cell that uses sodium instead of lithium
ions, the former both more abundant and cheaper than the latter. Just
before the show opened CATL announced those batteries would be incorporated
into domestic brand Chery's cars.
***
"And Chinese EV companies have already begun to make inroads abroad. The
biggest of them, BYD, set up shop in Norway then expanded onwards, and
others are following."
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230422-chinese-ev-dominance-hastens-
end-of-petrol-engine-era
or https://v.gd/YYqNoM
David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey
To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it. Use my
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"Pray, Mr Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures,
will the right answers come out?" I am not able rightly to
apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke
such a question.
-- Charles Babbage
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