On Sat, Jun 14, 2014 at 01:52:01PM +1200, LizR wrote:
> 
> Moore's law appears to have stopped working about 10 years ago, going by a
> comparison of modern home computers with old ones. That is, the processors
> haven't increased much in speed, but they have gained more "cores", i.e.
> they've been parallelised, and more memory and more storage. But the
> density of the components on the chips hasn't increased by the predicted
> amount (or so I'm told).
> 

Moore's law was never about GHz. It was originally about number of
transistors per dollar, and with greater transistor counts per CPU, that has
been turned into bigger caches and multiple cores (with 50+ core chips
now on the market).

But of real interest is processing power per dollar as a function of
time. This has been exponential since the start of the computing age
(perhaps even with a reduction of the time constant sometime in the
'90s), and shows no sign of slowing down. The rate of 1 order of
magnitude of performance improvement at a given price point every 5
years has held throughout my professional life. In my career, the
following purchases were made*:

1992 CM5, 4GFlops $1.5M
1996 SGI Power Challenge, 8GFlops, $800K
2000 SGI Origin 56 GFlops $1.2M
2004 Dell cluster, 1TF, $500K
2013 HP GPU cluster, 300TF, $500K

* subject to a certain amount uncertainty due to my recall of the
  facts

Attached is an image of the performance per dollar plotted as a
function of year.

-- 

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Prof Russell Standish                  Phone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders
Visiting Professor of Mathematics      hpco...@hpcoders.com.au
University of New South Wales          http://www.hpcoders.com.au

 Latest project: The Amoeba's Secret 
         (http://www.hpcoders.com.au/AmoebasSecret.html)
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