You, as well as most of the media write ups are confusing "did not prove a benefit" with "proved no benefit". From one we can conclude something, the other means the study wasn't big enough and the question remains open.
The studies that had enough people die to get a statistically powerful result were all late stage studies. You need a lot fewer people who are very sick to get statistical power than when the people are not yet sick. So it's no surprise that the first results to come in would be negative. But those studies tested the wrong thing. The claim was always that it should be given as early as possible, during the viral stage of the disease. Proving effectiveness for early administration requires studies tens to hundreds of times larger than late stage studies because so few people die from it. Jason On Sun, Aug 9, 2020, 7:13 AM John Clark <johnkcl...@gmail.com> wrote: > On Sat, Aug 8, 2020 at 7:23 PM Jason Resch <jasonre...@gmail.com> wrote: > > >> *> I think you understand the difference between significant and >> statistically significant. * >> > > If something is not statistically significant then there's no evidence it > is significant. Period. The Human mind is just not very good at assessing > probabilities, it's easy to reach conclusions that seem intuitively > obvious but are nevertheless dead wrong, especially if the sample size is > small, so it's important to be mathematically rigorous in scientific > papers. > > *> The test size and methodology for this study left a lot to be desired. >> That is why, despite showing significant results, it was unable to attain >> statistical significance.* >> > > Tests sizes are always finite and the results would always be better if > the test size was larger, but in this study for this drug the test size was > the largest there has ever been, so its results supersedes that of previous > studies. > > >> *> That means a large study is needed, not that we can conclude it does >> or doesn't work.* >> > > Hydroxychloroquine has now become like ESP, regardless of how many tests > that indicate there's nothing there some will say we need to study it more, > a true believer will never EVER say "that's enough, I was wrong, let's move > on". But the difference is ESP belief may be silly but it doesn't kill > people, however every time you use finite resources for yet another study > of something that has already been studied to death you are NOT studying > other treatments that look far more promising and might actually work. And > that could kill people and probably already has. > > *> You are falling back into doing politics, not science.* >> > > Jason, politics is the one and only reason we're having this conversation > right now, if it wasn't for Donald J Trump and his inability to ever EVER > admit that he was wrong about anything, like touting a quack cure months > ago, nobody would even be talking about hydroxychloroquine anymore, and > scientists aren't, but politicians and Fox pundits certainly are and they > will never stop. > > > *Look at the studies. I read the abstracts of all 65 of the studies >> that have been done.* >> > > One large well performed study trumps 6.02*10^23 small poorly performed > ones; and the scientific community has made its decision and they've > decided that enough is enough and it's time to move on; but for the true > believer too much is never enough so they will NEVER say OK you've > convinced me it's time to do something else, they will ALWAYS say let's > study it again, and again, and again, and again. And meanwhile people > continue to die. > > John K Clark > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv2uj8FcD7mhCcobAGX8ZDmRKVpGKQT0qCP1g7UfF9SFEQ%40mail.gmail.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv2uj8FcD7mhCcobAGX8ZDmRKVpGKQT0qCP1g7UfF9SFEQ%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CA%2BBCJUi_gu5vLASRi6OgKe_3rwVh-V9mOeq1ZiLLS_D0wkmeCg%40mail.gmail.com.
