Arnt Karlsen writes: > .."the 200'th hour" is also the most dangerous period for average > pilots according to the stats, these usually _assume_ things > instead of _preparing_ for them, because their 200 hour experience > may be construed to have taught them "this is allways ok to do".
That might be a bogus statistic. One of the most popular sources of it is a book called THE KILLING ZONE, by Paul Craig. He uses NTSB statistics to show that pilots with 50-300 hours of experience (his "killing zone") account for many more fatal accidents than any other group; however, since the FAA does not release statistics about the number of pilots and hours flown at different experience levels, his numbers are meaningless. For example, private and student pilots with 100-149 hours accounted for 309 fatal aircraft accidents in the U.S. from 1983 to 2000, while private and student pilots with 350-399 hours accounted for 109 accidents. Who's more dangerous? It depends on how many pilots there were in each category and how much they flew. If there were three times as many pilots with 100-149 hours as 350-399 hours -- or, more importantly, if pilots in the 350-399 hour category flew three times as many hours as the less experienced pilots -- then the fatal accident rate for the more experienced pilots was actually higher. That's not to say that such a blip doesn't exist, and that 200 hours isn't a dangerous place -- I worry a lot about how easy it is to get in over my head fast now, especially with a new instrument rating and the confidence boost from passing the IFR flight test and flying in the system with the big airliners. As a result, I second-guess myself too much before every flight and get quite nervous and even nauseous (until I start the engine, and a calm focus settles over me). Taking off after dusk right into gloomy, low, grey cloud is much different psychologically from taking off in the morning into a clear, blue sky. All the best, David _______________________________________________ Flightgear-devel mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://mail.flightgear.org/mailman/listinfo/flightgear-devel
