I am frankly mystified by the conversation. No one I know of who is
legitimately evaluating the data pretends to have any certainty as to
the anthropogenic component. The issues have to do with the
likelihood of continued warming; the effects that that trend would
have; the risks and rewards of inaction (supposing that we are a
primary cause); and the risks and reward of action (same supposition).
And I haven't seen a legitimate analysis within that framework that
comes out anywhere but here:
Act now, because if it is anthropogenic, the risk/reward profile of
action is overwhelmingly positive, and that of inaction potentially
(or even probably) catastrophic.
Surely folks don't think we need certainty before acting, especially
when we know we won't be certain until it's (probably) too late to
act, if we are the cause? That kind of thinking could give
scientists a bad name ;-)
db
On Aug 11, 2007, at 9:15 PM, Owen Densmore wrote:
Indeed!
BTW: Just as a pointer:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoclimatology
.. has an overview of Paleoclimatology
Note the quote:
Changes in the atmosphere may also exert an important influence
over climate change. The establishment of CO2-consuming (and oxygen-
producing) photosythesizing organisms in the Precambrian led to the
production of an atmosphere much like today's, though for most of
this period it was much higher in CO2 than today. Similarly, the
Earth's average temperature was also frequently higher than at
present, though it has been argued that over very long time scales
climate is largely decoupled from carbon dioxide variations (Veizer
et al. 2000).
BTW: I really do hedge my bets .. and I am thinking about various
means of minimizing my personal impact. But I sure don't think we
understand this critter. The whole damn earth, fer heaven sakes!
Talk about Gaia!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaia_hypothesis
-- Owen
On Aug 11, 2007, at 8:01 PM, Douglas Roberts wrote:
Owen,
I find it quite refreshing to hear someone express the viewpoint
that we
simply don't know to what extent human activity effects global
warming. My
left-wing-nut friends all go batty on the subject, falling down on
their
knees to worship Al Gore when the subject comes up. Even the smart
ones are
totally sold on the concept that humans caused the current global
warming
trend.
Anyone who claims to have figured out this particular global
complex system
and is stating with absolute certainty that humans are The Cause of
the
current climate trend goes down in my book as just a tad gullible.
I concede that it is possible, perhaps even likely that humans are
affecting
the global climate. But we certainly don't understand the global/
celestial
climate dynamic well enough to prove it. I mean come on, for
crying out
loud: we just discovered that neutrinos have mass. We think.
--Doug
--
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell
On 8/11/07, Owen Densmore <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
I have to agree .. in the sense that a SFI climate paleontologist
couched the issue:
There is certainly a very recent correlation between CO2 and an
upward trend in temperature. But when one looks at multi-million
year variations, we are actually in a cool area, and that the cause/
effect between any human activity pales in comparison to things like
meteor impacts and volcanic action. Thus much of the buzz is likely
very inaccurate and unfounded. BUT, personally, there is certainly
no reason to NOT minimize man's impact on the environment.
I think when the dust settles (so to speak!) we'll find that we
simply currently have no idea why the earth goes through ice ages
and
hot ages. We may get hints if we really honestly try. But I go
along with the SFI researcher: it doesn't hurt to be cautious.
Its interesting that there are large gas/oil reserves under the ice
caps. Yet how did that happen if these result from organic decay?
Dyson also has an answer for that: there may be earth-core
activities
that contribute a great deal to oil.
-- Owen
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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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============================================================
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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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