I know we try to avoid getting into political discussions here, and that
is not what I'm trying t draw you into. Out of my infamous morbid
fascination, I *have* been following the presidential campaigns this
past year or more and in particular comparing the many running *polls*
to the *Iowa Electronic Markets*
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/
It is most interesting to me how much the WTA vs the popular vote prices
in the IEM diverge. It definitely supports MY (reluctant) preferences
in this context, but it IS disturbing in a democracy that the
representative factor (electoral college in this case) seems to either
magnify a small lead, or even perhaps bias it?
The polls seem to be somewhat "all over the place" which I suspect
reflects the methodology for sampling the population in each case.
Perhaps someone here has some professional experience with polling
methodologies or theory can illuminate a little?
This has impact on the debates. At this point, it looks like the Libs
and the Greens will be shut out of the upcoming debates, in spite of the
likely absurdity of a Trump/Clinton debate, given their personal styles
and stances. 3rd party debaters would surely add some signal to what is
likely to be nearly purely noise otherwise?
As a side note, I am disappointed with how little traction either Gary
or Jill are getting this time around. As UNpopular as both of the
primary candidates are, and as relatively acceptable (both Jill and Gary
seem to have serious intentions, serious campaigns and serious
platforms) candidates are, why don't we see higher/growing polling
numbers? Is it the ominosity of the elections themselves? Everyone is
afraid of creating a "spoiler"?
This re-invigorates my interest in Ranked Voting Systems. Do we have
any Psephologists (pebble counters) in the house with insight into
Ranked Voting Systems?
http://www.fairvote.org/ seems to be the main organization promoting RVS
at the national level but I don't see a roadmap of what it would take to
actually change our system to embrace this?
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