I just returned from a trip from the UK. I think rumors of the demise of their economy have been greatly exaggerated. Brexit will hurt the people that voted for it, just like Trump would hurt the people that voted for him. These aren’t the people that keep things running; they are the rear guard for a retreat from globalization that won’t work and can’t happen. Sure, Brexit will be an administrative nightmare, but decentralized control also has benefits in the long run.
From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Owen Densmore Sent: Wednesday, September 07, 2016 9:10 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Wisdom of Crowds vs Kenneth Arrow Slightly OT, but: The Brexit signaled the start of truly unexpected events. Italy, btw, is also having a referendum. But here's the Dallas News endorsing Hilary .. first dem endorsment in over 70 years! http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20160907-we-recommend-hillary-clinton-for-u.s.-president.ece l guess these are the years of Expect the Unexpected! -- Owen On Wed, Sep 7, 2016 at 8:39 AM, Steven A Smith <sasm...@swcp.com<mailto:sasm...@swcp.com>> wrote: I know we try to avoid getting into political discussions here, and that is not what I'm trying t draw you into. Out of my infamous morbid fascination, I *have* been following the presidential campaigns this past year or more and in particular comparing the many running *polls* to the *Iowa Electronic Markets* http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/ It is most interesting to me how much the WTA vs the popular vote prices in the IEM diverge. It definitely supports MY (reluctant) preferences in this context, but it IS disturbing in a democracy that the representative factor (electoral college in this case) seems to either magnify a small lead, or even perhaps bias it? The polls seem to be somewhat "all over the place" which I suspect reflects the methodology for sampling the population in each case. Perhaps someone here has some professional experience with polling methodologies or theory can illuminate a little? This has impact on the debates. At this point, it looks like the Libs and the Greens will be shut out of the upcoming debates, in spite of the likely absurdity of a Trump/Clinton debate, given their personal styles and stances. 3rd party debaters would surely add some signal to what is likely to be nearly purely noise otherwise? As a side note, I am disappointed with how little traction either Gary or Jill are getting this time around. As UNpopular as both of the primary candidates are, and as relatively acceptable (both Jill and Gary seem to have serious intentions, serious campaigns and serious platforms) candidates are, why don't we see higher/growing polling numbers? Is it the ominosity of the elections themselves? Everyone is afraid of creating a "spoiler"? This re-invigorates my interest in Ranked Voting Systems. Do we have any Psephologists (pebble counters) in the house with insight into Ranked Voting Systems? http://www.fairvote.org/ seems to be the main organization promoting RVS at the national level but I don't see a roadmap of what it would take to actually change our system to embrace this? ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
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