On 9/7/16 1:51 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
I just returned from a trip from the UK. I think rumors of the demise
of their economy have been greatly exaggerated.
Brexit will hurt the people that voted for it, just like Trump would
hurt the people that voted for him. These aren’t the people that
keep things running; they are the rear guard for a retreat from
globalization that won’t work and can’t happen. Sure, Brexit will be
an administrative nightmare, but decentralized control also has
benefits in the long run.
I heard an interesting analysis from another LANL friend who works in
Global Security and by my measure is a pretty well informed and deeply
introspective wonk on the topics of international politics and it's
practical upshot.
He also recently returned from the UK (pleasure not business) and said
something that matches my own experience, such as it is. He said that
he predicts that in spite of the vote, by the time the 2 years are up
for exercising the actual Brexit, there will not turn out to be enough
will of the people (or bureaucrats) to actually effect it and at that
time, it will time out and they will not have actually Brexited, as it
were... and business will return to "normal". I am probably hacking
this badly, but that is how I understood what he said.
I have two young colleaugues who live in the UK (many of you know them)
who essentially entered their careers under the (new then) EU and it
hugely shaped them personally and professionally. Much of who they
have become and what they do would have been radically different if not
for the EU and Britain's involvement. There are huge implications for
both of them (they work all over the EU together as freelancers
currently, but live primarily in Wales). One will have to leave the UK
and the other won't be (openly) welcome in the EU. They will probably
survive, find a way to make it around the system as it evolves. I hope
for them that the above scenario is a likely one (a miscarriage of the
Brexit in 2 years).
*From:*Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] *On Behalf Of *Owen
Densmore
*Sent:* Wednesday, September 07, 2016 9:10 AM
*To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
<friam@redfish.com>
*Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Wisdom of Crowds vs Kenneth Arrow
Slightly OT, but: The Brexit signaled the start of truly unexpected
events. Italy, btw, is also having a referendum.
But here's the Dallas News endorsing Hilary .. first dem endorsment in
over 70 years!
http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20160907-we-recommend-hillary-clinton-for-u.s.-president.ece
l guess these are the years of Expect the Unexpected!
-- Owen
On Wed, Sep 7, 2016 at 8:39 AM, Steven A Smith <sasm...@swcp.com
<mailto:sasm...@swcp.com>> wrote:
I know we try to avoid getting into political discussions here,
and that is not what I'm trying t draw you into. Out of my
infamous morbid fascination, I *have* been following the
presidential campaigns this past year or more and in particular
comparing the many running *polls* to the *Iowa Electronic Markets*
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/
It is most interesting to me how much the WTA vs the popular vote
prices in the IEM diverge. It definitely supports MY (reluctant)
preferences in this context, but it IS disturbing in a democracy
that the representative factor (electoral college in this case)
seems to either magnify a small lead, or even perhaps bias it?
The polls seem to be somewhat "all over the place" which I suspect
reflects the methodology for sampling the population in each
case. Perhaps someone here has some professional experience with
polling methodologies or theory can illuminate a little?
This has impact on the debates. At this point, it looks like the
Libs and the Greens will be shut out of the upcoming debates, in
spite of the likely absurdity of a Trump/Clinton debate, given
their personal styles and stances. 3rd party debaters would
surely add some signal to what is likely to be nearly purely noise
otherwise?
As a side note, I am disappointed with how little traction either
Gary or Jill are getting this time around. As UNpopular as both
of the primary candidates are, and as relatively acceptable (both
Jill and Gary seem to have serious intentions, serious campaigns
and serious platforms) candidates are, why don't we see
higher/growing polling numbers? Is it the ominosity of the
elections themselves? Everyone is afraid of creating a "spoiler"?
This re-invigorates my interest in Ranked Voting Systems. Do we
have any Psephologists (pebble counters) in the house with insight
into Ranked Voting Systems?
http://www.fairvote.org/ seems to be the main organization
promoting RVS at the national level but I don't see a roadmap of
what it would take to actually change our system to embrace this?
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