Seems like the abduction step would be assuming that there are loaded wheels before you have any empirical evidence.
A wheel could be fat-tailed, tending to longer runs, without being biased toward any particular numbers. There would be an incentive to bet on a run continuing, but no particular number would be more likely to have long runs. That wouldn't be a loaded wheel in the usual understanding of crooked gambling devices. But it would be the sort of device to encourage gamblers to believe they have a hot hand. -- rec -- On Mon, Dec 12, 2016 at 2:06 PM, Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> wrote: > Mathematical induction is a method for proving theorems. "Scientific > induction" is a method for accumulating evidence to support one hypothesis > or another; no proof involved, or possible. > > Frank > > Frank Wimberly > Phone (505) 670-9918 > > On Dec 12, 2016 11:44 AM, "Owen Densmore" <o...@backspaces.net> wrote: > > What's the difference between mathematical induction and scientific? > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_induction > > -- Owen > > On Mon, Dec 12, 2016 at 10:44 AM, Robert J. Cordingley < > rob...@cirrillian.com> wrote: > >> Based on https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/peirce/#dia - it looks like >> abduction (AAA-2) to me - ie developing an educated guess as to which might >> be the winning wheel. Enough funds should find it with some degree of >> certainty but that may be a different question and should use different >> statistics because the 'longest run' is a poor metric compared to say net >> winnings or average rate of winning. A long run is itself a data point and >> the premise in red (below) is false. >> >> Waiting for wisdom to kick in. R >> >> PS FWIW the article does not contain the phrase 'scientific induction' R >> >> On 12/12/16 12:31 AM, Nick Thompson wrote: >> >> Dear Wise Persons, >> >> >> >> Would the following work? >> >> >> >> *Imagine you enter a casino that has a thousand roulette tables. The >> rumor circulates around the casino that one of the wheels is loaded. So, >> you call up a thousand of your friends and you all work together to find >> the loaded wheel. Why, because if you use your knowledge to play that >> wheel you will make a LOT of money. Now the problem you all face, of >> course, is that a run of successes is not an infallible sign of a loaded >> wheel. In fact, given randomness, it is assured that with a thousand >> players playing a thousand wheels as fast as they can, there will be random >> long runs of successes. But the longer a run of success continues, the >> greater is the probability that the wheel that produces those successes is >> biased. So, your team of players would be paid, on this account, for >> beginning to focus its play on those wheels with the longest runs. * >> >> >> >> FWIW, this, I think, is Peirce’s model of scientific induction. >> >> >> >> Nick >> >> >> >> Nicholas S. Thompson >> >> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology >> >> Clark University >> >> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ >> >> >> >> >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >> >> >> -- >> Cirrillian >> Web Design & Development >> Santa Fe, NMhttp://cirrillian.com281-989-6272 <(281)%20989-6272> (cell) >> Member Design Corps of Santa Fe >> >> >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >> > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >
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