Everybody,
As usual, when we “citizens” ask mathematical questions, we throw in WAY too much surplus meaning. Thanks for all your fine-tuned efforts to straighten me out. Let’s take out all the colorful stuff and try again. Imagine a thousand computers, each generating a list of random numbers. Now imagine that for some small quantity of these computers, the numbers generated are in n a normal (Poisson?) distribution with mean mu and standard deviation s. Now, the problem is how to detect these non-random computers and estimate the values of mu and s. Let’s leave aside for the moment what kind of –duction that is. I shouldn’t have thrown that in. And besides, I’ve had enough humiliation for one day. Nick Nicholas S. Thompson Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology Clark University <http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly Sent: Monday, December 12, 2016 12:06 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction Mathematical induction is a method for proving theorems. "Scientific induction" is a method for accumulating evidence to support one hypothesis or another; no proof involved, or possible. Frank Frank Wimberly Phone (505) 670-9918 On Dec 12, 2016 11:44 AM, "Owen Densmore" <o...@backspaces.net <mailto:o...@backspaces.net> > wrote: What's the difference between mathematical induction and scientific? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_induction -- Owen On Mon, Dec 12, 2016 at 10:44 AM, Robert J. Cordingley <rob...@cirrillian.com <mailto:rob...@cirrillian.com> > wrote: Based on https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/peirce/#dia - it looks like abduction (AAA-2) to me - ie developing an educated guess as to which might be the winning wheel. Enough funds should find it with some degree of certainty but that may be a different question and should use different statistics because the 'longest run' is a poor metric compared to say net winnings or average rate of winning. A long run is itself a data point and the premise in red (below) is false. Waiting for wisdom to kick in. R PS FWIW the article does not contain the phrase 'scientific induction' R On 12/12/16 12:31 AM, Nick Thompson wrote: Dear Wise Persons, Would the following work? Imagine you enter a casino that has a thousand roulette tables. The rumor circulates around the casino that one of the wheels is loaded. So, you call up a thousand of your friends and you all work together to find the loaded wheel. Why, because if you use your knowledge to play that wheel you will make a LOT of money. Now the problem you all face, of course, is that a run of successes is not an infallible sign of a loaded wheel. In fact, given randomness, it is assured that with a thousand players playing a thousand wheels as fast as they can, there will be random long runs of successes. But the longer a run of success continues, the greater is the probability that the wheel that produces those successes is biased. So, your team of players would be paid, on this account, for beginning to focus its play on those wheels with the longest runs. FWIW, this, I think, is Peirce’s model of scientific induction. Nick Nicholas S. Thompson Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology Clark University http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ <http://home.earthlink.net/%7Enickthompson/naturaldesigns/> ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove -- Cirrillian Web Design & Development Santa Fe, NM http://cirrillian.com 281-989-6272 <tel:(281)%20989-6272> (cell) Member Design Corps of Santa Fe ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
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