Eudamonic Pie anyone?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Eudaemonic_Pie
The eudaemonic pie - bookcover.jpg
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:The_eudaemonic_pie_-_bookcover.jpg>
It seems that (some) roulette wheels (being imperfect, analog devices)
can and have been predicted statistically.... by NM boys born and
bred... This was all still a fresh story when I met Doyne (and
eventually Norm) back in the early 80s.
On 12/12/16 12:23 PM, Roger Critchlow wrote:
Seems like the abduction step would be assuming that there are loaded
wheels before you have any empirical evidence.
A wheel could be fat-tailed, tending to longer runs, without being
biased toward any particular numbers. There would be an incentive to
bet on a run continuing, but no particular number would be more likely
to have long runs. That wouldn't be a loaded wheel in the usual
understanding of crooked gambling devices. But it would be the sort
of device to encourage gamblers to believe they have a hot hand.
-- rec --
On Mon, Dec 12, 2016 at 2:06 PM, Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com
<mailto:wimber...@gmail.com>> wrote:
Mathematical induction is a method for proving theorems.
"Scientific induction" is a method for accumulating evidence to
support one hypothesis or another; no proof involved, or possible.
Frank
Frank Wimberly
Phone (505) 670-9918 <tel:%28505%29%20670-9918>
On Dec 12, 2016 11:44 AM, "Owen Densmore" <o...@backspaces.net
<mailto:o...@backspaces.net>> wrote:
What's the difference between mathematical induction and
scientific?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_induction
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_induction>
-- Owen
On Mon, Dec 12, 2016 at 10:44 AM, Robert J. Cordingley
<rob...@cirrillian.com <mailto:rob...@cirrillian.com>> wrote:
Based on https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/peirce/#dia
<https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/peirce/#dia> - it
looks like abduction (AAA-2) to me - ie developing an
educated guess as to which might be the winning wheel.
Enough funds should find it with some degree of certainty
but that may be a different question and should use
different statistics because the 'longest run' is a poor
metric compared to say net winnings or average rate of
winning. A long run is itself a data point and the premise
in red (below) is false.
Waiting for wisdom to kick in. R
PS FWIW the article does not contain the phrase
'scientific induction' R
On 12/12/16 12:31 AM, Nick Thompson wrote:
Dear Wise Persons,
Would the following work?
*/Imagine you enter a casino that has a thousand roulette
tables. The rumor circulates around the casino that one
of the wheels is loaded. So, you call up a thousand of
your friends and you all work together to find the loaded
wheel. Why, because if you use your knowledge to play
that wheel you will make a LOT of money. Now the problem
you all face, of course, is that a run of successes is
not an infallible sign of a loaded wheel. In fact, given
randomness, it is assured that with a thousand players
playing a thousand wheels as fast as they can, there will
be random long runs of successes. But the longer a run
of success continues, the greater is the probability that
the wheel that produces those successes is biased. So,
your team of players would be paid, on this account, for
beginning to focus its play on those wheels with the
longest runs. /*
FWIW, this, I think, is Peirce’s model of scientific
induction.
Nick
Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
<http://home.earthlink.net/%7Enickthompson/naturaldesigns/>
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Web Design & Development
Santa Fe, NM
http://cirrillian.com
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