To be fair make the reference be for uncontrolled spread. Let’s say everyone gets COVID-19 and 5-10% die, because the hospitals are clogged and there are no treatments. Would we be better off with 10% less people? Yeah, probably. That would go some ways to making social security system whole, as Nick pointed out. As a bounds they throw out 50% of Americans’ lives, ruined. Well, let’s just make that dead to not squabble over semantics. Is 50% too high?
From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> Date: Monday, May 11, 2020 at 11:08 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic My high school best friend Jim Snoke posted this on Facebook. He is also an anthropologist, like Dave. He says he finished his dissertation at UC Davis but his defense never happened because his major adviser moved to another university. (?). He has gotten involved in a major way with Native American causes and got about 40,000 signatures on a petition to save Chaco National Monument from fracking damage. He still lives in CA so he asked me to deliver it to the Governor's Office personally. I tried but they didn't really want that much paper. They said to tell him to email a digital file with the signatures. They took it seriously. Compare the arguments of the two anthropologists: The death rate in the United States, without considering the Covid-19 outbreak – and decades before it was even a twinkle in the eyes of America – stood at roughly 8.7 per 1000 people per year. That translates into a death rate of 0.0087. There are roughly 330 million people in the United States this year, and that translates into the following figure: 2,871,000. Two million, eight hundred and seventy-one thousand people die EVERY YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES of “natural” and “unnatural “ causes. Keep that figure in mind when those in power, and those in the media, scare the shit out of people with their dire “predictions” about the rising infection and death rates. At the present time, our already fragile economy is going to be ruined beyond all recovery – quite likely forever – and the draconian measures to “fight the virus” will have succeeded in destroying the lives of almost half of our total population in the name of a “pandemic” that is taking less than a tenth of 1 percent of the population. My point is that NO ONE in the United States goes berserk over the FACT that 2,871,000 people die – in this country alone – every year. We don’t forfeit our economy and our way of life over these equally-tragic deaths. But let it be an epidemic, and we DO forfeit our economy and our way of life – and the “epidemic” will NEVER, NEVER, NEVER reach the truly-epidemic proportions that constitute the NATURAL and UNNATURAL, ONGOING DEATH RATE IN THE UNITED STATES. OMG!!! 270,000 people have died from the pandemic !!!!! Yes, it is horrible – but what about the 2,871,000 people that die every year regardless of the pandemic??? 10 times the death rate of the “pandemic” -- every single, Goddamned year. Where is the outrage?? Where is the concern?? Are we actually so scared shitless that we are willing to lose our ENTIRE ECONOMY, OUR JOBS, OUR INCOMES??? Has anybody thought this through?? We have flunked, outright, many many tests as a population over the past 100 years. Those of you who insist on arguing that: “THIS IS DIFFERENT – IT IS AN INFECTIOUS DISEASE THAT WE HAD NO CONTROL OVER, AND IT MIGHT HAVE KILLED US” need to keep in mind that although there are now more than 30,000,000 unemployed – and soon to be upwards of 50,000,000 – someone stands to gain from all this. Trump is using the distraction of the pandemic to go after fracking leases in our National Parks, large businesses are profiting from the “bailout” by looting the U.S. Treasury, Shell Oil and others are cutting down the rainforest in Brazil at a rate that is 50% higher this year than ever before, and capitalism in general is nailing the coffin shut on control of the World’s economies. Once again, we humans are failing the test, and this time the “F” we get will be "F"orever. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Mon, May 11, 2020, 11:45 AM <thompnicks...@gmail.com<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> wrote: Gary, FOOD before FRIAM! Definitely. But if you do bet back before noon Mountain, sign on; we are often still going at it, even that late. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com<mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 11:13 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com<mailto:friam@redfish.com>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms. Unfortunately, Friday is the one day a week I am permitted to go out on the roads with my car here in Ecuador due to the pandemic pandemonium, and I have to drive to get to the only supermarket that is open within 50 miles, and it closes at 1:00 pm. On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM <thompnicks...@gmail.com<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> wrote: Gary, If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you will get a chance to meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for nothin’. It starts at 9 am Mountain; you should get an invite automatically, sometime thursday. If not, let me know. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com<mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com<mailto:friam@redfish.com>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks. Google search shows a company called Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be some software called Discord, either or both of which may or may not be associated with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind times and technologically challenged. :-). Channeling Nick, I supposer. [no offense intended, Nick] On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <geprope...@gmail.com<mailto:geprope...@gmail.com>> wrote: Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean up their posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting through contributions awkward, as well. Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar to those experiment sites where you have to submit your design for review, then conduct the experiment, then submit your results: https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/ And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that knowledge comes through failure, not success: https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/ For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late June. On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote: > The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020. > > This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and > the perceptual. > > The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made > widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or > may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based > prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter. > > A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have next > to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point and a > catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the other is > imminent. > > "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — after > all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned small." > > Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and > socio-economic restrictions will collapse. > > The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a > behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously fasten > their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the > infection/death rate. > > Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will > become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away. > > There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and > individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months — > who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly > countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — ones you do > not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?" > > None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple > observation / prediction. -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... 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