Perhaps some data (from the last years that I could find) would put the
'anthropologists' argument in perspective?
2017-now US Population about 320 million.
*US Suicides* *2017*
14.0 per 100,000
Total: *47,173*
*US Motor Vehicle Fatalities* *2018*
11.18 per 100,000
Total: *36,560*
*US Covid-19 Fatalities 5/11/20 *132 days into the year with one wave
under our belt
24.32 per 100,000
Total 2019 YTD: *80,094*
*US Spanish Flu Fatalities (1918 H1N1 flu pandemic)* - in as many as
three waves.
US Population: 103,208,000
654 per 100,000
Total Mar 1918 - Mar 1919: *675,000*
And yes people to go after the annual fatalities depending on the cause,
especially leading causes: heart disease, cancer, gun violence, opioid
abuse, domestic abuse, police violence, etc. And of course, you can
bring back jobs and the economy, you can't bring back lost loved ones.
And there are more waves to come.
And then we will continue experiencing more global warming induced
disasters: fires, flood, cyclones, more SARS-CoV-## style zoonotic
pandemics, climate refugees. What happens when these happen simultaneously?
It's hard not to conclude that capitalism is and has been a complete and
utter abject failure when responding and dealing with these events, not
mention it being among the causes, but I digress.
Ref:
https://www.acep.org/how-we-serve/sections/disaster-medicine/news/april-2018/1918-influenza-pandemic-a-united-states-timeline/
https://interestingengineering.com/the-1918-spanish-flu-and-what-it-cost-humanity-a-timeline
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929
Robert Cordingley - an occasional lurker.
On 5/11/20 12:07 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
My high school best friend Jim Snoke posted this on Facebook. He is
also an anthropologist, like Dave. He says he finished his
dissertation at UC Davis but his defense never happened because his
major adviser moved to another university. (?). He has gotten involved
in a major way with Native American causes and got about 40,000
signatures on a petition to save Chaco National Monument from fracking
damage. He still lives in CA so he asked me to deliver it to the
Governor's Office personally. I tried but they didn't really want
that much paper. They said to tell him to email a digital file with
the signatures. They took it seriously.
Compare the arguments of the two anthropologists:
The death rate in the United States, without considering the Covid-19
outbreak – and decades before it was even a twinkle in the eyes of
America – stood at roughly 8.7 per 1000 people per year. That
translates into a death rate of 0.0087. There are roughly 330 million
people in the United States this year, and that translates into the
following figure: 2,871,000. Two million, eight hundred and
seventy-one thousand people die EVERY YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES of
“natural” and “unnatural “ causes. Keep that figure in mind when
those in power, and those in the media, scare the shit out of people
with their dire “predictions” about the rising infection and death
rates. At the present time, our already fragile economy is going to
be ruined beyond all recovery – quite likely forever – and the
draconian measures to “fight the virus” will have succeeded in
destroying the lives of almost half of our total population in the
name of a “pandemic” that is taking less than a tenth of 1 percent of
the population. My point is that NO ONE in the United States goes
berserk over the FACT that 2,871,000 people die – in this country
alone – every year. We don’t forfeit our economy and our way of life
over these equally-tragic deaths. But let it be an epidemic, and we
DO forfeit our economy and our way of life – and the “epidemic” will
NEVER, NEVER, NEVER reach the truly-epidemic proportions that
constitute the NATURAL and UNNATURAL, ONGOING DEATH RATE IN THE UNITED
STATES. OMG!!! 270,000 people have died from the pandemic !!!!! Yes,
it is horrible – but what about the 2,871,000 people that die every
year regardless of the pandemic??? 10 times the death rate of the
“pandemic” -- every single, Goddamned year. Where is the outrage??
Where is the concern?? Are we actually so scared shitless that we are
willing to lose our ENTIRE ECONOMY, OUR JOBS, OUR INCOMES??? Has
anybody thought this through?? We have flunked, outright, many many
tests as a population over the past 100 years. Those of you who
insist on arguing that: “THIS IS DIFFERENT – IT IS AN INFECTIOUS
DISEASE THAT WE HAD NO CONTROL OVER, AND IT MIGHT HAVE KILLED US” need
to keep in mind that although there are now more than 30,000,000
unemployed – and soon to be upwards of 50,000,000 – someone stands to
gain from all this. Trump is using the distraction of the pandemic to
go after fracking leases in our National Parks, large businesses are
profiting from the “bailout” by looting the U.S. Treasury, Shell Oil
and others are cutting down the rainforest in Brazil at a rate that is
50% higher this year than ever before, and capitalism in general is
nailing the coffin shut on control of the World’s economies. Once
again, we humans are failing the test, and this time the “F” we get
will be "F"orever.
---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM
On Mon, May 11, 2020, 11:45 AM <thompnicks...@gmail.com
<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> wrote:
Gary,
FOOD before FRIAM! Definitely. But if you do bet back before
noon Mountain, sign on; we are often still going at it, even that
late.
Nick
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
*From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com
<mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> *On Behalf Of *Gary Schiltz
*Sent:* Monday, May 11, 2020 11:13 AM
*To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
<friam@redfish.com <mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
*Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms.
Unfortunately, Friday is the one day a week I am permitted to go
out on the roads with my car here in Ecuador due to the pandemic
pandemonium, and I have to drive to get to the only supermarket
that is open within 50 miles, and it closes at 1:00 pm.
On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM <thompnicks...@gmail.com
<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> wrote:
Gary,
If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you
will get a chance to meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for
nothin’. It starts at 9 am Mountain; you should get an invite
automatically, sometime thursday. If not, let me know.
Nick
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
*From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com
<mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> *On Behalf Of *Gary Schiltz
*Sent:* Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
*To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
<friam@redfish.com <mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
*Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus
Dictum's Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from
the ancient Greeks. Google search shows a company called
Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be some software called
Discord, either or both of which may or may not be associated
with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind times and
technologically challenged. :-). Channeling Nick, I supposer.
[no offense intended, Nick]
On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <geprope...@gmail.com
<mailto:geprope...@gmail.com>> wrote:
Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of
other tools to "pin" a post so that it's easily found
later on. In principle, the Mailman list page could do
this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the
footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean
up their posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such
piling makes sifting through contributions awkward, as well.
Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think
it's fantastic to make such explicit predictions, similar
to those experiment sites where you have to submit your
design for review, then conduct the experiment, then
submit your results:
https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/
And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission
that knowledge comes through failure, not success:
https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/
For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's
Discord to come back and look at Dave's prediction in late
June.
On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote:
> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by
mid-June, 2020.
>
> This assertion is premised on making a distinction
between the biological and the perceptual.
>
> The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be
found and made widely available, and treatments that
reduce severity and death rate may or may not be soon at
hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based
prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will
matter.
>
> A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to
die" to "I have next to zero chance of severe illness or
death" is reaching a tipping point and a catastrophic
(mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the
other is imminent.
>
> "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize)
this shift — after all, my individual risk is 150,000 /
300,000,000 or "pretty damned small."
>
> Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual
reality and socio-economic restrictions will collapse.
>
> The percentage of the population that wear masks (just
one example of a behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal
the number that fastidiously fasten their seat belts; but
this and similar behaviors will mitigate the the
infection/death rate.
>
> Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the
death rate will become "acceptable," and the current media
"hysteria" will fade away.
>
> There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the
affluent elderly and individuals who have acquired
money/influence/notoriety the past few months — who will
argue against these changes but their objections will be
quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of
consequences — ones you do not share — to cater to your
fears or your ego?"
>
> None of the above should be interpreted as anything
except a simple observation / prediction.
--
☣ uǝlƃ
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Cirrillian
Web Design & Development
Santa Fe, NM
http://cirrillian.com
281-989-6272 (cell)
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