Frank, Still need help. Given events 1, 2, and 3, 3 has been screen off by 2 from 1, if the probability that 3 occurs given that 2 has occurred is equal to the probability that 3 occurs given that both 2 and one have occurred. As I understand mathematics this equality requires that the probability of 1 occurring is 1.00. Another way to say that is that the probability that 3 occurs if 2 has occurred is the same as the probability that 3 has occurred if 2 has occurred, and 1 has already occurred. What's the fun in that? In other words, given the possibility of other causes for 2, the fact that 2 occurs gives us relatively little evidence that 1 has occurred. Isn"t this true of all causal abduction?
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