We need to get together with a whiteboard or paper. The value of S at t1 could be 190 cm if S is height and t1 is Nick Thompson.
--- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Mon, Dec 6, 2021, 4:23 PM <thompnicks...@gmail.com> wrote: > Frank, Thanks for sticking with me on this. > > > > My comment was not conceptual, merely algebraic: Can > > > > Pr(R at t3 | I at t2) = Pr(R at t3 | I at t2 & S at t1). > > > > …be true if the value of S at t1.is anything other than one? > > > > > > > > n > > Nick Thompson > > thompnicks...@gmail.com > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly > *Sent:* Monday, December 6, 2021 3:07 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > friam@redfish.com> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Screening off > > > > The question isn't whether 1 has occurred but what is the value of 1 (it's > a variable) and is the distribution of 3 is independent of that observed > value. > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > > > On Sat, Dec 4, 2021, 5:38 PM Nicholas Thompson <thompnicks...@gmail.com> > wrote: > > Frank, > > > > Still need help. Given events 1, 2, and 3, 3 has been screen off by 2 from > 1, if the probability that 3 occurs given that 2 has occurred is equal to > the probability that 3 occurs given that both 2 and one have occurred. > As I understand mathematics this equality requires that the probability of > 1 occurring is 1.00. Another way to say that is that the probability that > 3 occurs if 2 has occurred is the same as the probability that 3 has > occurred if 2 has occurred, and 1 has already occurred. What's the fun in > that? In other words, given the possibility of other causes for 2, the > fact that 2 occurs gives us relatively little evidence that 1 has > occurred. Isn"t this true of all causal abduction? > > > > N > > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: > 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: > 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >
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