Frank, Thanks for sticking with me on this.
My comment was not conceptual, merely algebraic: Can Pr(R at t3 | I at t2) = Pr(R at t3 | I at t2 & S at t1). …be true if the value of S at t1.is anything other than one? n Nick Thompson <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> thompnicks...@gmail.com <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly Sent: Monday, December 6, 2021 3:07 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Screening off The question isn't whether 1 has occurred but what is the value of 1 (it's a variable) and is the distribution of 3 is independent of that observed value. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Sat, Dec 4, 2021, 5:38 PM Nicholas Thompson <thompnicks...@gmail.com <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> > wrote: Frank, Still need help. Given events 1, 2, and 3, 3 has been screen off by 2 from 1, if the probability that 3 occurs given that 2 has occurred is equal to the probability that 3 occurs given that both 2 and one have occurred. As I understand mathematics this equality requires that the probability of 1 occurring is 1.00. Another way to say that is that the probability that 3 occurs if 2 has occurred is the same as the probability that 3 has occurred if 2 has occurred, and 1 has already occurred. What's the fun in that? In other words, given the possibility of other causes for 2, the fact that 2 occurs gives us relatively little evidence that 1 has occurred. Isn"t this true of all causal abduction? N .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam <http://bit.ly/virtualfriam> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
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