Here's an idea example of a conditional independence assertion: grey hair is independent of gender given age.
Note: I am not saying that's true. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Mon, Dec 6, 2021, 4:32 PM Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> wrote: > We need to get together with a whiteboard or paper. The value of S at t1 > could be 190 cm if S is height and t1 is Nick Thompson. > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > On Mon, Dec 6, 2021, 4:23 PM <thompnicks...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> Frank, Thanks for sticking with me on this. >> >> >> >> My comment was not conceptual, merely algebraic: Can >> >> >> >> Pr(R at t3 | I at t2) = Pr(R at t3 | I at t2 & S at t1). >> >> >> >> …be true if the value of S at t1.is anything other than one? >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> n >> >> Nick Thompson >> >> thompnicks...@gmail.com >> >> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ >> >> >> >> *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly >> *Sent:* Monday, December 6, 2021 3:07 PM >> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < >> friam@redfish.com> >> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Screening off >> >> >> >> The question isn't whether 1 has occurred but what is the value of 1 >> (it's a variable) and is the distribution of 3 is independent of that >> observed value. >> >> --- >> Frank C. Wimberly >> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >> >> 505 670-9918 >> Santa Fe, NM >> >> >> >> On Sat, Dec 4, 2021, 5:38 PM Nicholas Thompson <thompnicks...@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >> Frank, >> >> >> >> Still need help. Given events 1, 2, and 3, 3 has been screen off by 2 >> from 1, if the probability that 3 occurs given that 2 has occurred is >> equal to the probability that 3 occurs given that both 2 and one have >> occurred. As I understand mathematics this equality requires that the >> probability of 1 occurring is 1.00. Another way to say that is that the >> probability that 3 occurs if 2 has occurred is the same as the probability >> that 3 has occurred if 2 has occurred, and 1 has already occurred. What's >> the fun in that? In other words, given the possibility of other causes for >> 2, the fact that 2 occurs gives us relatively little evidence that 1 has >> occurred. Isn"t this true of all causal abduction? >> >> >> >> N >> >> >> .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> archives: >> 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >> >> >> .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> archives: >> 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >> >
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