It is very tempting to just jump in and argue with Jay Hanson, but I'd
be surprised to find a single person on this mailing list who believes
that could ever be productive. So let me propose an alternative.
I'd like to write a program to run a simulation of the world economy,
first to see if Jay's conclusions follow from his own data, and then
to do a sensitivity analysis to see what are the most important
variables.
I propose to put this program up on the web in source code form as
well as compiled binaries, so that everyone can check to see how
plausible the model is, and can play with it a bit.
I do have some expertise in this area, having worked on a simulation
of the Canadian air traffic control system in Ottawa a while back, but
by putting actual source code up on the web I hope to minimize the
dependence of the model on my own personal expertise.
To do this, I will need some data, and I hope Jay will be willing to
provide the data underlying his own conclusions.
This is just an idea at the moment, but it sounds like a worthwhile
project, consistent with my often stated preference for algorithms
over arguments, and I don't think it will too difficult. What do you
think?
dpw
Douglas P. Wilson [EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.island.net/~dpwilson/index.html
