Hi Mike & all,
I've been away, and just got to your post. I'm familiar with the World Game
site. It is likely that their software is not nearly as comprehensive nor
as flexible as the Global System Simulator one. For those interested in
receiving a detailed description of the system, I have it in pdf format
(Adobe Acrobat needed - freely available online)
(approx 50 pgs with data charts, & references)
(Douglas: I urge you to have a look before attempting to re-invent the
wheel.)
There is also a "concept" paper(14 pgs incl references) also in pdf format.
I will fwd these to anyone who would like them. Please email me off-list.
Below is a brief overview:
Steve
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APPROACH
To fulfill its mandate, the Global Systems Centre has adopted an approach
based on the use of computer-based simulators that takes advantage of
recent developments in our understanding of adaptive systems and advanced
telecommunications technology.
Unlike the first generation of global models, the simulator approach is
open to adaptation or learning. The simulators are designed in such a way
that the system of feedback loops necessary to assure consistency among the
constituent processes of the system is incomplete: those feedbacks
embodying the behavioral responses that are subject to adaptation are
excluded from the simulator because they are not knowable. Consequently,
the possibility of inconsistency or disequilibrium arises. Disequilibium is
indicated by tensions that must be resolved by the user of the simulator.
In this way the user becomes an integral part of the system as the source
of novelty for adaptation, not an observer of a closed system. The work of
Ilya Prigogine shows the indeterminacy of systems far from equilibrium and
the possibilities of adaptation through the emergence of higher levels of
order.[Prigogine 1984]. Evolutionary systems are described by Erwin Laszlo
in the following terms:
The evolutionary paradigm challenges concepts of equilibrium and
determinacy in scientific theories; and it modifies the classical
deterministic conception of scientific laws. The laws conceptualized in the
evolutionary context are not deterministic and prescriptive: they do not
uniquely determine the course of evolution. Rather, they state ensembles of
possibilities within which evolutionary processes can unfold. [Laszlo,
1987]
Simulators are primarily learning devices that extend our powers of
perception; they do not predict what will happen nor do they prescribe what
should happen. Just as flight simulators support learning how the aircraft
responds to the controls, global systems simulators may be used for
exploring the responsiveness global systems to potential societal actions
involving population growth, life-style and technology.
Simulators are descriptions of complex systems representing the
interrelationships among the processes that constitute the system; they
combine observations of past states of the system with scientific
understanding of processes. As such, simulators are explicit and
communicable representations of the mental models that guide our
perceptions and actions. Unlike verbal or mathematical descriptions of
systems, simulators are active and can be experienced. Learning how the
system works arises from the experience of using the simulator. The user
will come to appreciate the complex system-as-a-whole behaviour as it
emerges out of dynamic interactions among relatively well understood
processes such as manufacturing, consumer demand, technology and energy
use.
Four properties are important if the global systems simulators are to be
effective in this role:
Controllability - the user must be able to experiment with control settings
that make "the airplane fly safely, or crash"
Transparency - the question "why" must be answerable at all levels; for
example, allowing the learner to observe cause and effect, and also
allowing a view of the deeper logic in a simulation which shows how
variables are related
Realism - the simulator must correspond to the real world without
oversimplification
Adaptability - new understanding and new data must be incorporated as they
become available.
