Stratfor Weekly (free intel)
10.27.03: Ramadan attacks raise fears of global
violence
Key selected excerpts:
"The
string of attacks in Iraq raises an alarming question for U.S. and
other Western countries fighting al Qaeda: Were these attacks a
symbolic trigger -- a message from al Qaeda to its allies around the
globe -- to kickstart
a campaign
of attacks against Western allies, assets and infrastructure across
the globe? Although the answer currently is unclear, the bombings
will cause Western governments and businesses to respond as though
Ramadan will be a month of
bloodletting.
...The
ability of militant Islamist organizations to act
in concert on a global scale
is a critical concern for the United States and its allies.
Washington's war against al Qaeda is in part psychological, and both
sides need to demonstrate that the other cannot operate globally
without substantial risk. Al Qaeda hopes to raise the costs of U.S.
involvement in the Gulf region high enough that Washington will pull
out. The United States needs to break al Qaeda's global network so
that it eventually can back the group's leadership into a geographic
corner, lock it down and finally quash its operational
capability.
...
Who carried out the attacks remains unclear, and the suspect list is
long. The multiple
attacks, coordinated within a 45-minute window and
targeting sites in the central, north, south and western parts of
the city, indicate that
the group responsible is sophisticated, has
a
solid knowledge of the areas and experience in planning and
logistics necessary for carrying out such
operations.
...Decision-makers
in Washington, London, Canberra, Madrid and elsewhere will be
desperate to know the answers to these questions: Were these attacks
dictated solely by local issues? Were they conducted by the Sunni
guerrillas or foreign fighters? Are they tied only to the U.S.
occupation in Iraq, or are they meant to signal to groups -- such as
the Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia, the Taliban in Afghanistan, the
Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat in Algeria and the
Aden-Abyan Army in Yemen or sleeper cells in the United States -- to
launch their own attacks against Westerners and their
allies?
Al
Qaeda is a global network but also an operational unit formerly
based in Afghanistan that might still be directing attacks against
the United States and its allies in the Gulf. Al
Qaeda Prime,
the senior leadership's operating unit based in Afghanistan -- which
conducted the Sept. 11 attacks and other major operations -- has
never used symbolic dates for operational
activities.
...
Al Qaeda Prime still needs to show that it continues to survive if
it hopes to take the war against the Americans beyond the Gulf.
Using
the start of Ramadan as an agreed launch date
for a global terrorism campaign would resonate with radicals
throughout the world.
..
Western governments are worried about Ramadan attacks.
Australia,
Britain and the United States
all warned their citizens within the last few days of specific plots
in Saudi Arabia........A
spate of bombings in
Los Angeles, New Delhi, Rio de Janeiro, Madrid and Sydney would
serve as a remarkable victory for al Qaeda and a mortal blow to the
U.S. war against terrorism.
(end of excerpts. Attached in full)
