Stratfor Weekly (free intel)
10.27.03: Ramadan attacks raise fears of global
violence
Key selected excerpts:
"The
string of attacks in Iraq raises an alarming question for U.S. and
other Western countries fighting al Qaeda: Were these attacks a
symbolic trigger -- a message from al Qaeda to its allies around the
globe -- to kickstart
a campaign of
attacks against Western allies, assets and infrastructure across the
globe? Although the answer currently is unclear, the bombings will
cause Western governments and businesses to respond as though Ramadan
will be a month of bloodletting.
...The
ability of militant Islamist organizations to act
in concert on a global scale is
a critical concern for the United States and its allies. Washington's
war against al Qaeda is in part psychological, and both sides need to
demonstrate that the other cannot operate globally without substantial
risk. Al Qaeda hopes to raise the costs of U.S. involvement in the
Gulf region high enough that Washington will pull out. The United
States needs to break al Qaeda's global network so that it eventually
can back the group's leadership into a geographic corner, lock it down
and finally quash its operational
capability.
...
Who carried out the attacks remains unclear, and the suspect list is
long. The multiple
attacks, coordinated within a 45-minute window and
targeting sites in the central, north, south and western parts of the
city, indicate that the
group responsible is sophisticated, has
a
solid knowledge of the areas and experience in planning and logistics
necessary for carrying out such
operations.
...Decision-makers
in Washington, London, Canberra, Madrid and elsewhere will be
desperate to know the answers to these questions: Were these attacks
dictated solely by local issues? Were they conducted by the Sunni
guerrillas or foreign fighters? Are they tied only to the U.S.
occupation in Iraq, or are they meant to signal to groups -- such as
the Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia, the Taliban in Afghanistan, the
Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat in Algeria and the Aden-Abyan
Army in Yemen or sleeper cells in the United States -- to launch their
own attacks against Westerners and their
allies?
Al
Qaeda is a global network but also an operational unit formerly based
in Afghanistan that might still be directing attacks against the
United States and its allies in the Gulf. Al
Qaeda Prime,
the senior leadership's operating unit based in Afghanistan -- which
conducted the Sept. 11 attacks and other major operations -- has never
used symbolic dates for operational
activities.
...
Al Qaeda Prime still needs to show that it continues to survive if it
hopes to take the war against the Americans beyond the Gulf.
Using
the start of Ramadan as an agreed launch date for
a global terrorism campaign would resonate with radicals throughout
the world.
..
Western governments are worried about Ramadan attacks.
Australia,
Britain and the United States all
warned their citizens within the last few days of specific plots in
Saudi Arabia........A
spate of bombings in
Los Angeles, New Delhi, Rio de Janeiro, Madrid and Sydney would serve
as a remarkable victory for al Qaeda and a mortal blow to the U.S. war
against terrorism. (end
of excerpts. Attached in full)