Stratfor Weekly (free
intel) 10.27.03: Ramadan attacks raise fears of global
violence
Key selected excerpts:
"The
string of attacks in Iraq raises an alarming question for U.S.
and other Western countries fighting al Qaeda: Were these
attacks a symbolic trigger -- a message from al Qaeda to its
allies around the globe -- to kickstart
a campaign
of attacks against Western allies, assets and infrastructure
across the globe? Although the answer currently is unclear,
the bombings will cause Western governments and businesses to
respond as though Ramadan will be a month of
bloodletting.
...The
ability of militant Islamist organizations to
act
in concert on a global scale
is a critical concern for the United States and its allies.
Washington's war against al Qaeda is in part psychological,
and both sides need to demonstrate that the other cannot
operate globally without substantial risk. Al Qaeda hopes to
raise the costs of U.S. involvement in the Gulf region high
enough that Washington will pull out. The United States needs
to break al Qaeda's global network so that it eventually can
back the group's leadership into a geographic corner, lock it
down and finally quash its operational
capability.
...
Who carried out the attacks remains unclear, and the suspect
list is long. The multiple
attacks, coordinated within a 45-minute window
and
targeting sites in the central, north, south and western parts
of the city, indicate that
the group responsible is sophisticated, has
a
solid knowledge of the areas and experience in planning and
logistics necessary for carrying out such
operations.
...Decision-makers
in Washington, London, Canberra, Madrid and elsewhere will be
desperate to know the answers to these questions: Were these
attacks dictated solely by local issues? Were they conducted
by the Sunni guerrillas or foreign fighters? Are they tied
only to the U.S. occupation in Iraq, or are they meant to
signal to groups -- such as the Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia,
the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Salafist Group for Preaching
and Combat in Algeria and the Aden-Abyan Army in Yemen or
sleeper cells in the United States -- to launch their own
attacks against Westerners and their
allies?
Al
Qaeda is a global network but also an operational unit
formerly based in Afghanistan that might still be directing
attacks against the United States and its allies in the Gulf.
Al
Qaeda Prime,
the senior leadership's operating unit based in Afghanistan --
which conducted the Sept. 11 attacks and other major
operations -- has never used symbolic dates for operational
activities.
...
Al Qaeda Prime still needs to show that it continues to
survive if it hopes to take the war against the Americans
beyond the Gulf. Using
the start of Ramadan as an agreed launch
date
for a global terrorism campaign would resonate with radicals
throughout the world.
..
Western governments are worried about Ramadan attacks.
Australia,
Britain and the United States
all warned their citizens within the last few days of specific
plots in Saudi Arabia........A
spate of bombings in
Los Angeles, New Delhi, Rio de Janeiro, Madrid and Sydney
would serve as a remarkable victory for al Qaeda and a mortal
blow to the U.S. war against terrorism.
(end of excerpts. Attached in full)