I second that.
REH
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, November 03, 2003 10:36
AM
Subject: RE: [Futurework] Ramadan a
launch date for global terror?
Thanx for this.
Arthur,
I second Fernea, Lewis' earlier works and Khadduri. Philip Hitti
[deceased] wrote good history. http://leb.net/fchp/hitti.htm.
Gustav von Grunebaum [deceased] inic.utexas.edu/menic/meoc/sites.html
Let me add some of my old buddies:
Bill
Bill Quandt, Christina Harris, Elizabeth Fernea, Bernard Lewis'
early works, J.C. Hurewitz, Rohan Gunaratna, Majid Khadduri on
jurisprudence, Lenni Brenner, John Esposito, Karen Armstrong, L.P.
Harvey.
Enjoy.
You said,
. On MIddle Eastern matters, there are several scholars
and observers I trust
Can you suggest names, books or URLs?
Can you specify the subject matter?
Lawry
Are there URLs, books or commentators that you can suggest
that as you say
"don't have axes to grind, and who are curious and
continuously updating their views and their information from primary
sources. They generally know the language of the peoples they are
studying, and so can access primary sources easily. Their forecasts
have proven over significant periods of time to be accurate and
thoughtful."
arthur
Hmmm. Good question. On MIddle Eastern matters, there are
several scholars and observers I trust. These are people
who don't have axes to grind, and who are curious and continuously
updating their views and their information from primary sources.
They generally know the language of the peoples they are studying,
and so can access primary sources easily. Their forecasts have
proven over significant periods of time to be accurate and
thoughtful.
I suppose it isn't a matter of 'trust' as much as it is an
assessment of the caliber of their information and
thinking.
'Trust' to me has to do with character and integrity.
Someone might have a bias that disqualifies him as a reliable
source of information, but his character nonetheless induces me to
trust him with regard to, say, making and holding to
commitments. For example, I go climbing with a fellow whose
political views are downright goofy, yet, on the face,
I trust him completely.
Cheers,
Lawry
So Lawry who do you
trust?
Good morning Karen and
all,
After a interesting start some time back,
"Stratfor" has revealed itself as predominantly interested in
Israeli affairs.This means that everything that touches on
Israel's security is viewed through an Israel-first
perspective. This is another of those. The subject of
terrorism has been one of the topics so exploited. The
writer reveals himself ignorant of:
1. Ramadan and its
meaning
2. Terror organizations, their
capabilities and their communications
3. Al-Qaida
The US will find it useful to blame
resistance in Iraq on 'bad guys', including 'foreign
fighters.' By doing so, the US hopes to regalvanize domestic
support for our actions in Iraq. But keep in mind that
the US does not have much of a local human intelligence
capability in the Middle East. We depend much on others to
tell us what is going on there. Like the "WMD" fakery, the US
is prone to be taken in on other matters, including 'foreign
fighters' and 'global terrorism'. The difference this time
around may be that our journalists, having been burnt once,
may this time insist on some of the first-hand checking
of facts that journalists are supposed to
do.
Meanwhile, I would recommend a healthy
dose of skepticism on anything coming from
"Startfor".
Best regards,
Lawry
Stratfor Weekly (free
intel) 10.27.03: Ramadan attacks raise fears of global
violence
Key selected excerpts:
"The
string of attacks in Iraq raises an alarming question for
U.S. and other Western countries fighting al Qaeda: Were
these attacks a symbolic trigger -- a message from al Qaeda
to its allies around the globe -- to kickstart
a campaign
of attacks against Western allies, assets and infrastructure
across the globe? Although the answer currently is unclear,
the bombings will cause Western governments and businesses
to respond as though Ramadan will be a month of
bloodletting.
...The
ability of militant Islamist organizations to
act
in concert on a global scale
is a critical concern for the United States and its allies.
Washington's war against al Qaeda is in part psychological,
and both sides need to demonstrate that the other cannot
operate globally without substantial risk. Al Qaeda hopes to
raise the costs of U.S. involvement in the Gulf region high
enough that Washington will pull out. The United States
needs to break al Qaeda's global network so that it
eventually can back the group's leadership into a geographic
corner, lock it down and finally quash its operational
capability.
...
Who carried out the attacks remains unclear, and the suspect
list is long. The multiple
attacks, coordinated within a 45-minute window
and
targeting sites in the central, north, south and western
parts of the city, indicate that
the group responsible is sophisticated, has
a
solid knowledge of the areas and experience in planning and
logistics necessary for carrying out such
operations.
...Decision-makers
in Washington, London, Canberra, Madrid and elsewhere will
be desperate to know the answers to these questions: Were
these attacks dictated solely by local issues? Were they
conducted by the Sunni guerrillas or foreign fighters? Are
they tied only to the U.S. occupation in Iraq, or are they
meant to signal to groups -- such as the Jemaah Islamiyah in
Indonesia, the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Salafist Group
for Preaching and Combat in Algeria and the Aden-Abyan Army
in Yemen or sleeper cells in the United States -- to launch
their own attacks against Westerners and their
allies?
Al
Qaeda is a global network but also an operational unit
formerly based in Afghanistan that might still be directing
attacks against the United States and its allies in the
Gulf. Al
Qaeda Prime,
the senior leadership's operating unit based in Afghanistan
-- which conducted the Sept. 11 attacks and other major
operations -- has never used symbolic dates for operational
activities.
...
Al Qaeda Prime still needs to show that it continues to
survive if it hopes to take the war against the Americans
beyond the Gulf. Using
the start of Ramadan as an agreed launch
date
for a global terrorism campaign would resonate with radicals
throughout the world.
..
Western governments are worried about Ramadan attacks.
Australia,
Britain and the United States
all warned their citizens within the last few days of
specific plots in Saudi Arabia........A
spate of bombings in
Los Angeles, New Delhi, Rio de Janeiro, Madrid and Sydney
would serve as a remarkable victory for al Qaeda and a
mortal blow to the U.S. war against
terrorism.
(end of excerpts. Attached in full)
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