[Futurework] Has Saddam won?

[Keith Hudson]

During the invasion, or a little beforehand (I forget now), I ventured the possibility on FW that Saddam would be a president long after Bush is not.

This is looking a little more possible now. At this moment I would love to be able to read the morning newpsapers in Baghdad because what at least two or three of them will be saying is that the Americans are about to flee Iraq (Ed: the Americans' hasty departure will be the only way in which Iraq will be similar to Vietnam!).

Although this is not his intent, Hamer will be effectively handing over power to the Iraqi Governing Council this morning. They will not want to write a constitution because (a) it will delay elections for a government until at least the spring or the summer; (b) it will probably be impossible anyway. I think it is slightly more likely that the IGC will assume -- or try to assume -- the powers of a Provisional Government and rule by decree.

But whether they do, or whether they fall out among themselves, I think this is when the civil war will start. That is, this morning. From last night, American troops are already desperately trying a last attempt to find and kill Saddam. It is possible that they might succeed. It seems slightly more possible that they will not. We are seeing TV clips in this country of American troops acting atrociously in rough-handling women and children in their own homes. But this will be a brief episode because they will be overtaken by events.

I think from today we will probably see the beginning of the emergence of armed militias of all sorts -- Sunni, Shia and Saddam+Fedayeen+Arab tribes -- as the American troops retreat behind barricades in their compounds and are then shunted out of the country by helicopter. This will be the first time that RPGs will not be fired at American helicopters because they'll be in too much use between militias on the ground.

Bush and Cheney have already been humiliated by the refusal of US and UK oil corporations and LUKoil to start oil development. His humiliation is about to be complete during the next few weeks. Goodbye George W. There'll be no library erected in your honour. Even in Texas.

Keith Hudson

P.S. Yesterday, on Pulteney Bridge in town, I was (courteously) accosted by four Americans who desired me to tell them where they could obtain a traditional pub lunch. In return, it was refreshing to hear what they thought about Bush, garnished by the fact that they were Texans! Yes, four live Texans in Bath! So I told them the old anti-Texan joke we tell over here that if they ever see a 50ft long red pantechnicon, ladders on the top, with bells jangling and roaring down the street, it was not a fire engine but a window-cleaner's van. We departed fom one each other in high spirits and I hope they had a fine lunch.
K
Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>