At 12:17 18/11/2003 -0500, you wrote:
Keith, I will be very interested in your observations of Blair and Bush microbehaviors while the latter is there. Tone, timbre, volume and tempo of voice. Hand gestures. Body movements. Facial expressions. Eye movements. Skin color changes, muscle tension changes. And if you can relate this to the substance of what is being said, that would be wonderful. I know this is asking a lot, but you have already shown you are one of the better observers of these things, and appreciate the communications and cognitive modeling importance that these things have. The trickiest thing, from an observational point of view, is tracking at the same time both these microbehaviors and the content of their discussions or pronouncements. I will appreciate any information you can pass back to me on this.
I'll be pleased to observe for what it's worth. Mind you, I must confess that although I watch Rumsfeld, Perle and Wolfowitz like a hawk (and Cheney when he deigns to speak in public), I've never watched Bush closely because I find him acutely embarrassing (and so do all those friends I've mentioned this to in Bath). But I'll nerve myself for you. What sacrifices one does for one's fellow FWers!
OK, here's the storyboard so far:
1. Telescopic camera shot of him waving goodbye in the US: He would be relatively unguarded in this situation -- the cameras probably being at least a hundred yards away, I presume. Bush and wife ascend airplane steps and pause at the top. Two very brief smiles to individuals standing down below him on either side of steps (Condee and Powell I'd guess). But as he looks straight towards (distant) camera/us he is a distinctly unhappy bunny. No doubt about that. This is not the gravitas of a president, but simply someone in a bad mood. Very quickly herds his wife into the plane. I might see some more of him later this evening on Newsnight (not actually being interviewed on Newsnight, you understand -- the story over here is that although Bush is willing to be interviewed by David Frost or some other sycophant, he wouldn't dare to be interview by any of the Newsnight team, even our relatively gentle Kirsty Walk. They'd take him to pieces -- particularly Jeremy Paxton. Even Tony Blair declines to be interviewed by him. (JP is famous for asking the same question 14 times of Michael Howard when he was Home Secretary when he didn;t get a proper answer. [Now that most certainly was embarrassing to the viewer. I have never seen a government minister treated so aggressively. Howard won, incidentally, 'cos he's a clever so-and-so -- Mensa++ I'd say -- and quite JP's intellectual equal.] )
Anyway, I'll delete the above non-Bush tittle-tattle when I report next time on the second scene I may happen to observe. But believe me, Bush was not a happy person when he got on that plane. I suspect he felt he was leaving too many problems behind him (and perhaps wondering just what his minions would be deciding about Iraq! America is not quite the place where you'd expect a coup d'etat. But when the cat's away the mice will play and I'm sure that many top people [except his immediate team perhaps*] will be speaking more frankly than usual and the atmosphere will be just that little bit different when he returns.
(*Though I'm sure they are talking very frankly among themselves. Not about Bush, you understand. I'm sure he just does as he's told. But now that Bush is no longer around to catch the vibes I think they'll be saying to themselves that the game is really up, and all they can hope for now is miracles.)
Incidentally Lawry, no one else to my knowledge, except yours truly, has put 2 and 2 together -- that Bremer was called back to Washington the day after Bush Senior and Kissinger had arrived back from seeing the Russian oil people in St :Petersburg. That was the final clincher -- the end to the present occupation policy. I imagine that they're hoping that some form of Iraqi-acceptable government will form in due course that will also give opportunities to US/UK oil firms, but that's got to be fairly well down the line now. They needed to have started pumping by now. (My present count of the northern pipeline being blown up is 8, by the way.) But I think that public opinion in America will bring the troops out long before June.
Keith
Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
