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Who is L. Paul Bremer?
REH
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, November 14, 2003 9:49
AM
Subject: Hamer is not an Ambassador (was
Re: [Futurework] Has Saddam won?
Ray,
Hamer is Paul Hamer, the US Civilian
Administrator in Baghdad, whom Bush has taken to calling Ambassador Hamer
recently. This, of course, is a total misnomer because there is no legitimate
government in Iraq to whom Hamer could be an ambassador to.
Just as a
rider to what I wrote below, I would expect that there'll be some relative
quietude for a day or two while the Governing Council mull over the message
that Hamer has brought back with him from Bush (which is: "What the hell do I
do now? It's up to you guys to pull something out of the hat.").
Of
course, the Governing Council won't call for elections for a Constitutional
Council in order to establish the ground rules for a General Election as Grand
Ayatollah Sistani is calling for because it will produce a Shia majority --
and thus, probably a Shia government, which is the last thing that the
Americans (or the Governing Council) would want. So they'll
dither.
There are, of course, spies on the Governing Council despite
being hand-picked by the Americans. When Wolfowitz went secretly to Baghdad a
week ago, he didn't stir from the Al Rashid Hotel for security reasons, not
did he even meet with the Governing Council. But Saddam's rockets almost got
him all the same -- only one floor wrong. When the Council's state of dither
and full extent of Bush's dilemma becomes known to Saddam's henchmen and the
other terrorist groups (though they have certainly already guessed this) then
I think we can expect terrorism to be ramped up from then onwards in the Arab
Sunni triangle.
It is obvious that the American Army has been
instructed to find and destroy Saddam at all costs (as they are also trying to
do for Osama in Afghanistan right now). Bush is desperate for some success
like this even though it will not help the main problem. Whether the troops
succeed or not, it is sure that they will further alienate the Iraqi people in
Baghad and environs by their activities. I cannot foresee anything that could
stabilise the beginnings of civil war now except a fairly immediate
announcement of an early General Election -- which, as suggested above, is
exceedingly unlikely.
Now that the US, UK oil corporations and LUKoil
will not move in and start developing the oilfields in northern Iraq, Bush has
absolutely no more arrows in his quiver. He is on a hiding to nothing. This is
very apparent in his conversations and announcements (as with Frost today). He
hasn't got a complete sentence in his head. He can only refer in a jerky sort
of way about the support of his only friend in the world -- Tony Blair. Except
for a few Republican Senators, I think he will soon have almost no support
from anybody at the highest levels of the American government and
administration except his own immediate circle. He will be impeached or
dethroned pretty soon I would guess. There's no other way out for the
credibility of America. Putin can get away with these sorts of antics in what
is still a totalitarian state, but surely not in America! Or am I dreadfully
wrong?
Keith Hudson
At 09:06 14/11/2003 -0500, you
wrote:
Keith,
who is Hamer?
REH
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: Keith Hudson
- To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
- Sent: Friday, November 14, 2003 2:17 AM
- Subject: [Futurework] Has Saddam won?
- During the invasion, or a little beforehand (I forget now), I ventured
the possibility on FW that Saddam would be a president long after Bush is
not.
- This is looking a little more possible now. At this moment I would
love to be able to read the morning newpsapers in Baghdad because what at
least two or three of them will be saying is that the Americans are about
to flee Iraq (Ed: the Americans' hasty departure will be the only way in
which Iraq will be similar to Vietnam!).
- Although this is not his intent, Hamer will be effectively handing
over power to the Iraqi Governing Council this morning. They will not want
to write a constitution because (a) it will delay elections for a
government until at least the spring or the summer; (b) it will probably
be impossible anyway. I think it is slightly more likely that the IGC will
assume -- or try to assume -- the powers of a Provisional Government and
rule by decree.
- But whether they do, or whether they fall out among themselves, I
think this is when the civil war will start. That is, this morning. From
last night, American troops are already desperately trying a last attempt
to find and kill Saddam. It is possible that they might succeed. It seems
slightly more possible that they will not. We are seeing TV clips in this
country of American troops acting atrociously in rough-handling women and
children in their own homes. But this will be a brief episode because they
will be overtaken by events.
- I think from today we will probably see the beginning of the emergence
of armed militias of all sorts -- Sunni, Shia and Saddam+Fedayeen+Arab
tribes -- as the American troops retreat behind barricades in their
compounds and are then shunted out of the country by helicopter. This will
be the first time that RPGs will not be fired at American helicopters
because they'll be in too much use between militias on the ground.
- Bush and Cheney have already been humiliated by the refusal of US and
UK oil corporations and LUKoil to start oil development. His humiliation
is about to be complete during the next few weeks. Goodbye George W.
There'll be no library erected in your honour. Even in Texas.
- Keith Hudson
- P.S. Yesterday, on Pulteney Bridge in town, I was (courteously)
accosted by four Americans who desired me to tell them where they could
obtain a traditional pub lunch. In return, it was refreshing to hear what
they thought about Bush, garnished by the fact that they were Texans! Yes,
four live Texans in Bath! So I told them the old anti-Texan joke we tell
over here that if they ever see a 50ft long red pantechnicon, ladders on
the top, with bells jangling and roaring down the street, it was not a
fire engine but a window-cleaner's van. We departed fom one each other in
high spirits and I hope they had a fine lunch.
- K
- Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
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