Keith, who is Hamer?
REH
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, November 14, 2003 2:17
AM
Subject: [Futurework] Has Saddam
won?
During the invasion, or a little beforehand (I
forget now), I ventured the possibility on FW that Saddam would be a president
long after Bush is not.
This is looking a little more possible now. At
this moment I would love to be able to read the morning newpsapers in Baghdad
because what at least two or three of them will be saying is that the
Americans are about to flee Iraq (Ed: the Americans' hasty departure will be
the only way in which Iraq will be similar to Vietnam!).
Although this
is not his intent, Hamer will be effectively handing over power to the Iraqi
Governing Council this morning. They will not want to write a constitution
because (a) it will delay elections for a government until at least the spring
or the summer; (b) it will probably be impossible anyway. I think it is
slightly more likely that the IGC will assume -- or try to assume -- the
powers of a Provisional Government and rule by decree.
But whether they
do, or whether they fall out among themselves, I think this is when the civil
war will start. That is, this morning. From last night, American troops are
already desperately trying a last attempt to find and kill Saddam. It is
possible that they might succeed. It seems slightly more possible that they
will not. We are seeing TV clips in this country of American troops acting
atrociously in rough-handling women and children in their own homes. But this
will be a brief episode because they will be overtaken by events.
I
think from today we will probably see the beginning of the emergence of armed
militias of all sorts -- Sunni, Shia and Saddam+Fedayeen+Arab tribes -- as the
American troops retreat behind barricades in their compounds and are then
shunted out of the country by helicopter. This will be the first time that
RPGs will not be fired at American helicopters because they'll be in too much
use between militias on the ground.
Bush and Cheney have already been
humiliated by the refusal of US and UK oil corporations and LUKoil to start
oil development. His humiliation is about to be complete during the next few
weeks. Goodbye George W. There'll be no library erected in your honour. Even
in Texas.
Keith Hudson
P.S. Yesterday, on Pulteney Bridge in
town, I was (courteously) accosted by four Americans who desired me to tell
them where they could obtain a traditional pub lunch. In return, it was
refreshing to hear what they thought about Bush, garnished by the fact that
they were Texans! Yes, four live Texans in Bath! So I told them the old
anti-Texan joke we tell over here that if they ever see a 50ft long red
pantechnicon, ladders on the top, with bells jangling and roaring down the
street, it was not a fire engine but a window-cleaner's van. We departed fom
one each other in high spirits and I hope they had a fine lunch. K
Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
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