Hi Peter, As the paper points out, projections for sea ice suggest that the Arctic Ocean will be seasonably free before mid-century [1], and this will pose challenges in the Arctic; but there are potential impacts on the whole planet from the Arctic being locked into rapid warming: 1. sea level will rise ever faster; 2. methane bubbling up from the ocean bed in ever increasing quantities could add disastrously to global warming; 3. the jet stream could be further disrupted, causing extreme climate change in the Northern Hemisphere [2].
Thus saving the sea ice takes on a high priority for urgent action. To minimise risk of extreme impacts, we need to restore sea ice by employing both cooling techniques (such as tropospheric cloud brightening, stratospheric aerosol cooling and ocean brightening) and ice thickening techniques. Furthermore we need to deal with growing impacts of Arctic warming in the pipeline: preparing for sea level rise; suppressing and/or capturing methane; and adapting to more extreme climate change than already seen this century as the jet stream meanders more and gets stuck for longer periods. It may be possible to combine some of these techniques. For example, sea ice could be thickened such as to capture methane bubbling up underneath it. We need urgent study on this kind of intervention, and I would be grateful if the geoengineering googlegroup forum could be used for an open discussion on the possibilities. Cheers, John [1] Many reputable scientists now say that the Arctic Ocean could be seasonally ice free by 2030; and a few top sea ice experts point to the observed volume trend which suggests September ice free by 2020. [2] See Scientific American, May 2015 issue, on Arctic waves, with reference to extreme climate change in the past. On Thu, Apr 30, 2015 at 7:12 PM, Peter Flynn <peter.fl...@ualberta.ca> wrote: > If the object is restoration of sea ice, I continue to believe that a > direct approach of thickening sea ice by pumping sea water onto it, thereby > circumventing the self insulating feature of natural formation of sea ice, > is the quickest, most direct, and most proven approach, easily terminated > if any unintended consequence is observed. > > > > Thickening ice by putting water onto the surface of existing ice is well > proven for both fresh water and sea water. Ice roads throughout the north, > including the supply road to Leningrad during WWII, are built this way. Sea > water was used in the Beaufort Sea to quickly build ice islands to support > drilling platforms, with maximum thicknesses greater than eight meters. > > > > To the extent that the ocean can be brightened without ice, it would > perhaps make more sense to do this at lower latitude, to reflect more light > per square meter of brightened surface. > > > > Peter > > > > Peter Flynn, P. Eng., Ph. D. > > Emeritus Professor and Poole Chair in Management for Engineers > > Department of Mechanical Engineering > > University of Alberta > > peter.fl...@ualberta.ca > > cell: 928 451 4455 > > > > > > > > *From:* geoengineering@googlegroups.com [mailto: > geoengineering@googlegroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Ken Caldeira > *Sent:* April-30-15 8:07 AM > *To:* Andrew Lockley > *Cc:* Cvijanovic, Ivana; geoengineering; Doug MacMartin > *Subject:* Re: [geo] Impacts of ocean albedo alteration on Arctic sea ice > restoration and Northern Hemisphere climate - ERL > > > > I agree that it would be good to investigate Arctic cloud brightening. > > > > We studied Arctic Ocean brightening because it has been proposed by > ice911.org, among others, and has not yet been subject to scrutiny in a > peer-reviewed context. > > > > Also, note that ocean surface whitening has a long pedigree, being > proposed by none other than the President's Science Advisory Committee in > 1965. > > > > > http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab/Caldeira%20downloads/PSAC,%201965,%20Restoring%20the%20Quality%20of%20Our%20Environment.pdf > > > > Furthermore, we have previously analyzed effects of reducing Arctic > insolation at the top of atmosphere. > > > > http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/366/1882/4039 > > > > The analyses of ocean surface albedo whitening and top-of-atmosphere solar > insolation reduction should provide useful context for studies of effects > of changes in Arctic cloud properties. > > > > Best, > > Ken > > > > > > On Wednesday, April 29, 2015, Andrew Lockley <andrew.lock...@gmail.com> > wrote: > > Ken > > I appreciate that this is an idealised experiment, but I'm still puzzled > by the design. > > Surely any serious attempt to cool the land down, or to reduce global > temperatures, would be based on generalised ocean cooling, in the manner of > MCB. > > Could you explain why you chose to investigate the pattern of ocean albedo > alteration prescribed in your paper? > > A > > On 29 Apr 2015 23:05, "Ken Caldeira" <kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu> > wrote: > > Folks, > > > > Please find attached the paper cited. > > > > The paper has attracted some press attention. > > > > Also, here are simplified forms of two figures from the paper. > > > > Best, > > > > Ken > > > > > > > [image: Inline image 1] > <http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150428171402.htm> > Whitening the *Arctic* Ocean: May restore *sea ice*, but not climate > <http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150428171402.htm> > > Science Daily - Apr 28, 2015 > > Ivana Cvijanovic, Ken *Caldeira*, Douglas G MacMartin. Impacts of ocean > *albedo* alteration on *Arctic sea ice* restoration and Northern > Hemisphere climate. Environmental Research Letters, 2015; 10 (4): 044020 > DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044020 ... > Geoengineering *Arctic* Ocean *albedo* will not mitigate climate change > <http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/61045> > > environmentalresearchweb - 12 hours ago > > But a bigger question is whether the approaches would even reduce warming > as they intend, which is why Ivana Cvijanovic and Ken *Caldeira* at the > Carnegie Institution for Science, US, together with Douglas MacMartin at > the California Institute of Technology, addressed this puzzle for ocean- > *albedo* modification. ... Some of the results were positive: an extreme > *albedo* boost could recover 40% of the *sea ice* that existed > pre-industrialization and cool the surface of the *Arctic* by some two > degrees. However, the ... > Study: *Arctic* Whitening Might Help *Ice* But Not Climate > <http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/study-arctic-whitening-might-help-ice-but-not-climate.html> > > reportingclimatescience.com - 15 hours ago > > New research from Carnegie's Ivana Cvijanovic (now at Lawrence Livermore > National Laboratory) and Ken *Caldeira*, as well as Douglas MacMartin of > Caltech, shows that while an incredibly large effort could, in principle, > restore vast amounts of *sea ice* by this method, it would not result in > substantial cooling. As a result, it ... Imposed *albedo* changes and *sea > ice* recovery alter climate outside the *Arctic* region too, affecting > precipitation distribution over parts of the continental United States and > Northeastern Pacific. > > [image: Inline image 2] > <http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3060586/Ocean-whitening-plans-doomed-fail-Scheme-tackle-climate-change-little-impact-restoring-sea-ice-warns-study.html> > Turning the oceans 'white' will NOT stop *sea ice* from melting > <http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3060586/Ocean-whitening-plans-doomed-fail-Scheme-tackle-climate-change-little-impact-restoring-sea-ice-warns-study.html> > > Daily Mail - 8 hours ago > > The white *sea ice* in the *Arctic* Ocean (shown above) helps to reflect > some of the sun's heat back into space but as it reduces, due to global > warming, there are fears it will increase the impacts of climate change. > ... Dr Ken *Caldeira*, an expert on global ecology at the Carnegie > Institution for Science who took part I the study, said: 'Simply put, our > results indicate that whitening the surface of the *Arctic* Ocean would > not be an effective tool for offsetting the effects of climate change > caused by atmospheric greenhouse gas. > > > <http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/artificially-manipulating-arctic-climate-by-whitening-surface-of-ocean-to-reflect-sunlight-back-into-space-will-fail-say-scientists-10210896.html> > Artificially manipulating *Arctic* climate by 'whitening' surface of > ocean to reflect *...* > <http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/artificially-manipulating-arctic-climate-by-whitening-surface-of-ocean-to-reflect-sunlight-back-into-space-will-fail-say-scientists-10210896.html> > > The Independent - Apr 28, 2015 > > Attempts to artificially manipulate the *Arctic* climate by “whitening” > the surface of the ocean in order to reflect sunlight back into space and > so mimic the effect of lost *sea ice*are almost certainly doomed to fail, > scientists said. ... “Simply put, our results indicate that whitening of > the surface of the *Arctic* Ocean would not be an effective tool for > offsetting the effects of climate change cause by atmospheric greenhouse > gas,” said Kenneth *Caldeira*, a climate researcher at the Carnegie > Institution in Washington DC. > > > > > _______________ > Ken Caldeira > > Carnegie Institution for Science > > Dept of Global Ecology > > 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA > > +1 650 704 7212 kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu > website: http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab/ > > blog: http://kencaldeira.org > > @KenCaldeira > > > > My assistant is Dawn Ross <dr...@carnegiescience.edu>, with access to > incoming emails. > > Postdoc positions: > https://jobs.carnegiescience.edu/jobs/postdoctoral-opportunity-global-climate-modeling/ > > > > > > On Wed, Apr 29, 2015 at 12:01 PM, Andrew Lockley <andrew.lock...@gmail.com> > wrote: > > http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/4/044020/ > > Environmental Research Letters Volume 10 Number 4 > Ivana Cvijanovic et al 2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 044020 > doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044020 > > Impacts of ocean albedo alteration on Arctic sea ice restoration and > Northern Hemisphere climate > > OPEN ACCESS > Ivana Cvijanovic, Ken Caldeira and Douglas G MacMartin > > Abstract > > The Arctic Ocean is expected to transition into a seasonally ice-free > state by mid-century, enhancing Arctic warming and leading to substantial > ecological and socio-economic challenges across the Arctic region. It has > been proposed that artificially increasing high latitude ocean albedo could > restore sea ice, but the climate impacts of such a strategy have not been > previously explored. Motivated by this, we investigate the impacts of > idealized high latitude ocean albedo changes on Arctic sea ice restoration > and climate. In our simulated 4xCO2 climate, imposing surface albedo > alterations over the Arctic Ocean leads to partial sea ice recovery and a > modest reduction in Arctic warming. With the most extreme ocean albedo > changes, imposed over the area 70°–90°N, September sea ice cover stabilizes > at ~40% of its preindustrial value (compared to ~3% without imposed albedo > modifications). This is accompanied by an annual mean Arctic surface > temperature decrease of ~2 °C but no substantial global mean temperature > decrease. Imposed albedo changes and sea ice recovery alter climate outside > the Arctic region too, affecting precipitation distribution over parts of > the continental United States and Northeastern Pacific. For example, > following sea ice recovery, wetter and milder winter conditions are present > in the Southwest United States while the East Coast experiences cooling. We > conclude that although ocean albedo alteration could lead to some sea ice > recovery, it does not appear to be an effective way of offsetting the > overall effects of CO2 induced global warming. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > > > > > > -- > > _______________ > Ken Caldeira > > Carnegie Institution for Science > > Dept of Global Ecology > > 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA > > +1 650 704 7212 kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu > website: http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab/ > > blog: http://kencaldeira.org > > @KenCaldeira > > > > My assistant is Dawn Ross <dr...@carnegiescience.edu>, with access to > incoming emails. > > Postdoc positions: > https://jobs.carnegiescience.edu/jobs/postdoctoral-opportunity-global-climate-modeling/ > > > > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. 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