I sent this out before but it was rejected because of too many attachments,
so here it is with fewer attachments.
Folks,
It would be good to do an ice thickening simulation, but I don't think the
results will differ widely from our Arctic ocean albedo simulations.
To restore sea ice to pre-industrial conditions with a 2xCO2 atmosphere
using top-of-atmosphere insolation changes (a stand in for idealized
aerosols), we needed to reduce insolation north of 70 degrees N by about
25%. This effected a global cooling on nearly 2 C. (Caldeira and Wood 2008)
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/366/1882/4039.figures-only
When we whitened the ocean north of 70 N, we achieved an Arctic cooling of
about 2 C. That is to say, the effect of ocean whitening was an order of
magnitude less.
Cooling the Arctic enough to regrow Arctic sea ice yields a lot more cooling
than do direct efforts to regrow the same amount of Arctic sea ice.
Sea ice loss is a symptom of warming as well as a climate feedback. Treating
this symptom treats part but far from all of the warming.
I would regard this conclusion as tentative, but a good working hypothesis
for future exploration.
Best,
Ken
PS. We also had another relevant study where we directly added and removed
sea ice from the Arctic, but in a model where meridional ocean heat
transport could not respond. (Caldeira and Cvijanovic 2014)
_______________
Ken Caldeira
Carnegie Institution for Science Dept of Global Ecology
260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
+1 650 704 7212 kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu
website: http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab/
blog: http://kencaldeira.org
@KenCaldeira
My assistant is Dawn Ross <dr...@carnegiescience.edu>, with access to
incoming emails.
Postdocpositions:
https://jobs.carnegiescience.edu/jobs/postdoctoral-opportunity-g
lobal-climate-modeling/
On Sun, May 3, 2015 at 8:16 PM, Sev Clarke <sevcla...@me.com> wrote:
As John seems to be referring to my Ice Shields concept that is
an extension of Peter’s original work, and which may be the
first to envisage methane capture using hexagonally-close-packed
arrays of ice shields and wind turbine power to concentrate,
collect, compress, separate and pipe the methane (see
http://envisionation.co.uk/index.php/sev-clarke ), perhaps I
might be permitted to respond to both Fred and Mark. Of course,
the answer is that it would most likely be the deep-pocketed
exploration, gas & petrochemical industries, pipeline &
electricity distribution authorities, the wind farm industry,
and logistics and utility companies associated with these that
would be most interested financially, though polar & marine
governance organisations, governments, international
organisations and NGOs would doubtless insist on being involved.
Shipping, scientific, and environmental rehabilitation groups
would doubtless be interested but would tend to be
beneficiaries, rather than funding providers. Note also, that
capturing the methane by this method would typically require no
drilling and no likelihood of massive oil spills in relatively
pristine wilderness, as only the increasingly mobile methane
clathrate deposits, not oil, should be permitted to be extracted
there. Indeed, the main observable environmental effect would be
the re-establishment of Arctic habitat and albedo. As the use of
'naturally-emitting’ methane may well enable us largely to stop
mining and burning coal, this should be regarded as an
acceptable trade-off whilst we develop a low-carbon global
economy.
The increasingly frightening methane torches, eruptions and gas
bubbling out of Arctic waters and permafrost, polar warming, and polar
vortex instability that are evidenced by AMEG and the excellent work
of Shakhova and Semiletov are the real-time evidence of climate
catastrophes required by Fred.
Sev Clarke
sevcla...@me.com
On 4 May 2015, at 10:17 am, Fred Zimmerman
<geoengineerin...@gmail.com> wrote:
Mark, I don't mean to be difficult, but I think the answer to
this question is plainly "no" and is likely to remain that way
until such there is such time as there is an unambiguous,
impossible to rationalize away, real-time climate catastrophe.
This thread is talking about a large quasi-industrial activity
in one of the few relatively pristine areas in the world. You
can quibble with the phrase "quasi industrial" but you are
talking about dozens or hundreds of ships or kilometer upon
kilometer of pipes, and the coalition that favors action is
automatically split by concern over the Arctic wild. This just
isn't going to happen. We should focus resources on CDR methods
that are more palatable to wider audiences.
Could the governments of Canada, Denmark, Norway,
and the United States be convinced to make covering
the Arctic Ocean with summer sea ice a condition of
ship passage or oil development?
On Sun, May 3, 2015 at 7:57
PM, <markcap...@podenergy.org> wrote:
Team,
So who has a lot of money and might be convinced to
thicken sea ice?
The offshore oil industry, the shipping industry, and
governments around the Arctic planning to benefit from
both oil and shipping.
Sea ice prevents the formation of large surface waves by
limiting fetch. Sea ice dampens waves to zero within a
few hundred meters. Sea ice is destroyed by surface
waves. (Mark Harris, "Waves of Destruction", Scientific
American, May 2015).
Oil companies could shelter oil platforms with grounded
rings of sea ice. Shipping companies would benefit from
calm water.
Mark E. Capron, PE
Ventura, California
www.PODenergy.org
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Re: [geo] Impacts of ocean albedo
alteration on Arctic sea ice
restoration and Northern Hemisphere climate -
ERL
From: John Nissen <johnnissen2...@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, May 02, 2015 10:56 am
To: Peter Flynn <pcfl...@ualberta.ca>
Cc: Ken Caldeira <kcalde...@gmail.com>, Andrew
Lockley
<andrew.lock...@gmail.com>, "Cvijanovic,
Ivana" <cvijanov...@llnl.gov>,
geoengineering
<geoengineering@googlegroups.com>, Doug
MacMartin
<macma...@cds.caltech.edu>, Sev Clarke
<sevcla...@me.com>, Bru Pearce
<b...@portgeorge.com>
Hi Peter,
As the paper points out, projections for sea ice
suggest that the Arctic Ocean will be seasonably
free before mid-century [1], and this will pose
challenges in the Arctic; but there are potential
impacts on the whole planet from the Arctic being
locked into rapid warming:
1. sea level will rise ever faster;
2. methane bubbling up from the ocean bed in ever
increasing quantities could add disastrously to
global warming;
3. the jet stream could be further disrupted,
causing extreme climate change in the Northern
Hemisphere [2].
Thus saving the sea ice takes on a high priority for
urgent action. To minimise risk of extreme impacts,
we need to restore sea ice by employing both cooling
techniques (such as tropospheric cloud brightening,
stratospheric aerosol cooling and ocean brightening)
and ice thickening techniques.
Furthermore we need to deal with growing impacts of
Arctic warming in the pipeline: preparing for sea
level rise; suppressing and/or capturing methane;
and adapting to more extreme climate change than
already seen this century as the jet stream meanders
more and gets stuck for longer periods.
It may be possible to combine some of these
techniques. For example, sea ice could be thickened
such as to capture methane bubbling up underneath
it. We need urgent study on this kind of
intervention, and I would be grateful if the
geoengineering googlegroup forum could be used for
an open discussion on the possibilities.
Cheers, John
[1] Many reputable scientists now say that the
Arctic Ocean could be seasonally ice free by 2030;
and a few top sea ice experts point to the observed
volume trend which suggests September ice free by
2020.
[2] See Scientific American, May 2015 issue, on
Arctic waves, with reference to extreme climate
change in the past.
On Thu, Apr 30, 2015 at 7:12 PM, Peter
Flynn <peter.fl...@ualberta.ca> wrote:
If the object is restoration of sea ice,
I continue to believe that a direct
approach of thickening sea ice by
pumping sea water onto it, thereby
circumventing the self insulating
feature of natural formation of sea ice,
is the quickest, most direct, and most
proven approach, easily terminated if
any unintended consequence is observed.
Thickening ice by putting water onto the
surface of existing ice is well proven for
both fresh water and sea water. Ice roads
throughout the north, including the supply
road to Leningrad during WWII, are built this
way. Sea water was used in the Beaufort Sea to
quickly build ice islands to support drilling
platforms, with maximum thicknesses greater
than eight meters.
To the extent that the ocean can be brightened
without ice, it would perhaps make more sense
to do this at lower latitude, to reflect more
light per square meter of brightened surface.
Peter
Peter Flynn, P. Eng., Ph. D.
Emeritus Professor and Poole Chair in
Management for Engineers
Department of Mechanical Engineering
University of Alberta
peter.fl...@ualberta.ca
cell: 928 451 4455
From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com [mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.c
om] On Behalf Of Ken Caldeira
Sent: April-30-15 8:07 AM
To: Andrew Lockley
Cc: Cvijanovic, Ivana; geoengineering; Doug
MacMartin
Subject: Re: [geo] Impacts of ocean albedo
alteration on Arctic sea ice restoration and
Northern Hemisphere climate - ERL
I agree that it would be good to investigate
Arctic cloud brightening.
We studied Arctic Ocean brightening because
it has been proposed by ice911.org, among
others, and has not yet been subject to
scrutiny in a peer-reviewed context.
Also, note that ocean surface whitening has a
long pedigree, being proposed by none other
than the President's Science Advisory
Committee in 1965.
http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab/Caldeira%20downloads/PSAC,%201965,
%20Restoring%20the%20Quality%20of%20Our%20Environment.pdf
Furthermore, we have previously analyzed
effects of reducing Arctic insolation at the
top of atmosphere.
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/366/1882/4039
The analyses of ocean surface albedo whitening
and top-of-atmosphere solar insolation
reduction should provide useful context for
studies of effects of changes
in Arctic cloud properties.
Best,
Ken
On Wednesday, April 29, 2015, Andrew Lockley
<andrew.lock...@gmail.com> wrote:
Ken
I appreciate that this is an idealised
experiment, but I'm still puzzled by the
design.
Surely any serious attempt to cool the land
down, or to reduce global temperatures, would
be based on generalised ocean cooling, in the
manner of MCB.
Could you explain why you chose to investigate
the pattern of ocean albedo alteration
prescribed in your paper?
A
On 29 Apr 2015 23:05, "Ken Caldeira"
<kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu> wrote:
Folks,
Please find attached the paper cited.
The paper has attracted some press attention.
Also, here are simplified forms of two figures
from the paper.
Best,
Ken
<image001.jpg>
<image002.jpg>
<image003.jpg>
WHITENING THE ARCTIC OCEAN: MAY RESTORE SEA ICE, BUT NOT CLIMATE
Science Daily - Apr 28, 2015
Ivana Cvijanovic, Ken Caldeira, Douglas G
MacMartin. Impacts of ocean albedo alteration
on Arctic sea ice restoration and Northern
Hemisphere climate. Environmental Research
Letters, 2015; 10 (4): 044020 DOI:
10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044020 ...
GEOENGINEERING ARCTIC OCEAN ALBEDO WILL NOT MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE
environmentalresearchweb - 12 hours ago
But a bigger question is whether the
approaches would even reduce warming as they
intend, which is why Ivana Cvijanovic and
Ken Caldeira at the Carnegie Institution for
Science, US, together with Douglas MacMartin
at the California Institute of Technology,
addressed this puzzle for
ocean-albedo modification. ... Some of the
results were positive: an extreme albedo boost
could recover 40% of the sea ice that existed
pre-industrialization and cool the surface of
the Arctic by some two degrees. However,
the ...
STUDY: ARCTIC WHITENING MIGHT HELP ICE BUT NOT CLIMATE
reportingclimatescience.com - 15 hours ago
New research from Carnegie's Ivana Cvijanovic
(now at Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory) and Ken Caldeira, as well as
Douglas MacMartin of Caltech, shows that while
an incredibly large effort could, in
principle, restore vast amounts of sea ice by
this method, it would not result in
substantial cooling. As a result, it ...
Imposed albedo changes and sea ice recovery
alter climate outside the Arctic region too,
affecting precipitation distribution over
parts of the continental United States and
Northeastern Pacific.
<image004.jpg>
TURNING THE OCEANS 'WHITE' WILL NOT STOP SEA ICE FROM MELTING
Daily Mail - 8 hours ago
The white sea ice in the Arctic Ocean (shown
above) helps to reflect some of the sun's heat
back into space but as it reduces, due to
global warming, there are fears it will
increase the impacts of climate change. ... Dr
Ken Caldeira, an expert on global ecology at
the Carnegie Institution for Science who took
part I the study, said: 'Simply put, our
results indicate that whitening the surface of
the Arctic Ocean would not be an effective
tool for offsetting the effects of climate
change caused by atmospheric greenhouse gas.
[images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQt3OkOh54GEVG-U7xLAPI33r__nchGvoq95fJQLTLxiRBAXSGU3X1zEp
LhIcVBhwHehQQK7fQ]
ARTIFICIALLY MANIPULATING ARCTIC CLIMATE BY 'WHITENING' SURFACE OF
OCEAN TO REFLECT ...
The Independent - Apr 28, 2015
Attempts to artificially manipulate
the Arctic climate by “whitening” the surface
of the ocean in order to reflect sunlight back
into space and so mimic the effect of lost sea
iceare almost certainly doomed to fail,
scientists said. ... “Simply put, our results
indicate that whitening of the surface of
the Arctic Ocean would not be an effective
tool for offsetting the effects of climate
change cause by atmospheric greenhouse gas,”
said Kenneth Caldeira, a climate researcher at
the Carnegie Institution in Washington DC.
_______________
Ken Caldeira
Carnegie Institution for Science
Dept of Global Ecology
260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
+1 650 704 7212 kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu
website: http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab/
blog: http://kencaldeira.org
@KenCaldeira
My assistant is Dawn Ross
<dr...@carnegiescience.edu>, with access to
incoming emails.
Postdocpositions:
https://jobs.carnegiescience.edu/jobs/postdoctoral-opportunity-g
lobal-climate-modeling/
On Wed, Apr 29, 2015 at 12:01 PM, Andrew
Lockley <andrew.lock...@gmail.com> wrote:
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/4/044020/
Environmental Research Letters Volume 10
Number 4
Ivana Cvijanovic et al 2015 Environ. Res.
Lett. 10 044020
doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044020
Impacts of ocean albedo alteration on Arctic
sea ice restoration and Northern Hemisphere
climate
OPEN ACCESS
Ivana Cvijanovic, Ken Caldeira and Douglas G
MacMartin
Abstract
The Arctic Ocean is expected to transition
into a seasonally ice-free state by
mid-century, enhancing Arctic warming and
leading to substantial ecological and
socio-economic challenges across the Arctic
region. It has been proposed that artificially
increasing high latitude ocean albedo could
restore sea ice, but the climate impacts of
such a strategy have not been previously
explored. Motivated by this, we investigate
the impacts of idealized high latitude ocean
albedo changes on Arctic sea ice restoration
and climate. In our simulated 4xCO2 climate,
imposing surface albedo alterations over the
Arctic Ocean leads to partial sea ice recovery
and a modest reduction in Arctic warming. With
the most extreme ocean albedo changes, imposed
over the area 70°–90°N, September sea ice
cover stabilizes at ~40% of its preindustrial
value (compared to ~3% without imposed albedo
modifications). This is accompanied by an
annual mean Arctic surface temperature
decrease of ~2 °C but no substantial global
mean temperature decrease. Imposed albedo
changes and sea ice recovery alter climate
outside the Arctic region too, affecting
precipitation distribution over parts of the
continental United States and Northeastern
Pacific. For example, following sea ice
recovery, wetter and milder winter conditions
are present in the Southwest United States
while the East Coast experiences cooling. We
conclude that although ocean albedo alteration
could lead to some sea ice recovery, it does
not appear to be an effective way of
offsetting the overall effects of CO2 induced
global warming.
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_______________
Ken Caldeira
Carnegie Institution for Science
Dept of Global Ecology
260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
+1 650 704 7212 kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu
website: http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab/
blog: http://kencaldeira.org
@KenCaldeira
My assistant is Dawn Ross
<dr...@carnegiescience.edu>, with access to
incoming emails.
Postdocpositions:
https://jobs.carnegiescience.edu/jobs/postdoctoral-opportunity-g
lobal-climate-modeling/
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