And, we are not stopping emissions yet. Even under the most ambitious scenario (the LED scenario by Grübler, et al), cumulative additional CO2 emissions to 2100 from fossil energy use are over 630 Gt. Coupled with about 250 Gt of enhanced “nature-based” removals, the result is more than a 40% increase in the temperature anomaly we are suffering today—an increase that persists into the 22nd century. When one considers the pain that is being inflicted today from extreme events (to which climate disruption is already adding), that is a lot of additional suffering. We have crossed into the realm of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. We must not trespass further but we will. The job is to move back toward the climate we enjoyed earlier as fast as we can. David
Sent from my iPad On Sep 14, 2019, at 10:45 AM, Klaus Lackner <klaus.lack...@asu.edu<mailto:klaus.lack...@asu.edu>> wrote: Yes, the oceans are taking on heat. But the energy imbalance remains until the CO2 is gone. The oceans will take up both the CO2 and the heat, but it is a slow (and slowing) process. From: Andrew Revkin <rev...@gmail.com<mailto:rev...@gmail.com>> Date: Friday, September 13, 2019 at 7:42 PM To: Klaus Lackner <klaus.lack...@asu.edu<mailto:klaus.lack...@asu.edu>> Cc: "durb...@gmail.com<mailto:durb...@gmail.com>" <durb...@gmail.com<mailto:durb...@gmail.com>>, "geoengineering@googlegroups.com<mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com>" <geoengineering@googlegroups.com<mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com>> Subject: Re: [geo] No fossil fuels = global warming stops “soon” If we stop the energy imbalance, oceans can also go a long way toward spreading that existing heat burden over time, as per this Rosenthal, Linsley, Oppo work: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/342/6158/617<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__science.sciencemag.org_content_342_6158_617&d=DwMFaQ&c=l45AxH-kUV29SRQusp9vYR0n1GycN4_2jInuKy6zbqQ&r=hFjA8A8KwwhQx5qilpfIleTL0XYVr_fckT8DnwIEWlQ&m=c5WkKQm80oGtr-ik0DfPBRt8G9lGzOp9Rc3aUa_j94M&s=GysUrJWxBv1OzAzhlNJZ5RtjBqxRsmk9ibIxV3U2Ik4&e=> https://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/31/10000-year-study-finds-oceans-warming-fast-but-from-a-cool-baseline/<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com_2013_10_31_10000-2Dyear-2Dstudy-2Dfinds-2Doceans-2Dwarming-2Dfast-2Dbut-2Dfrom-2Da-2Dcool-2Dbaseline_&d=DwMFaQ&c=l45AxH-kUV29SRQusp9vYR0n1GycN4_2jInuKy6zbqQ&r=hFjA8A8KwwhQx5qilpfIleTL0XYVr_fckT8DnwIEWlQ&m=c5WkKQm80oGtr-ik0DfPBRt8G9lGzOp9Rc3aUa_j94M&s=v9pklsd2w8YcGIIivLMYXTHahJdT_7PyynBwqc7wvAE&e=> On Fri, Sep 13, 2019 at 8:16 AM Klaus Lackner <klaus.lack...@asu.edu<mailto:klaus.lack...@asu.edu>> wrote: If by warming you mean an increase in the temperature, then warming will stop soon. If by warming you mean that it is warmer than without excess Greenhouse gases, then this excess temperature will be with us a long time. Solomon et al claimed it is 1000 years. Klaus From: <geoengineering@googlegroups.com<mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com>> on behalf of E Durbrow <durb...@gmail.com<mailto:durb...@gmail.com>> Reply-To: "durb...@gmail.com<mailto:durb...@gmail.com>" <durb...@gmail.com<mailto:durb...@gmail.com>> Date: Friday, September 13, 2019 at 5:09 PM To: "geoengineering@googlegroups.com<mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com>" <geoengineering@googlegroups.com<mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com>> Subject: [geo] No fossil fuels = global warming stops “soon” Alan Robock wrote: "Certainly if we stop burning fossil fuels, global warming will not stop immediately, but it will stop soon. “ As a layperson, my understanding is that even if fossil fuels burning stops tomorrow, warming and acidification will continue for decades rather than years. This is because of 2 centuries of greenhouse gas build-up (and greenhouse contributions from agriculture). Would some kind soul tell me that I’m wrong here? Thanks! -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com<mailto:geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com>. 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