For climate change the integral over the emissions matter. If
the integral is to remain constant, we have to drive the
emissions to zero, i.e., they have to come down. For that we
need a negative time derivative of emissions, but so far we have
kept even derivative positive as well. We are still on the
accelerator not on the brake.
If we want to have the integral to come down, we need negative
emission. (And yes the ocean helps a little, but the ocean is
good at it, because the rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere
maintain a gradient. If the CO2 does not go up anymore, the
gradient into the ocean will gradually go away and with it the
rate at which the ocean picks up CO2.
Uptake will slow down right away and not wait until the entire
ocean filled up.
Klaus
*From: *"Hawkins, David" <dhawk...@nrdc.org>
<mailto:dhawk...@nrdc.org>
*Date: *Saturday, September 14, 2019 at 12:03 PM
*To: *Klaus Lackner <klaus.lack...@asu.edu>
<mailto:klaus.lack...@asu.edu>
*Cc: *Andrew Revkin <rev...@gmail.com> <mailto:rev...@gmail.com>,
"durb...@gmail.com" <mailto:durb...@gmail.com>
<durb...@gmail.com> <mailto:durb...@gmail.com>,
"geoengineering@googlegroups.com"
<mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com>
<geoengineering@googlegroups.com>
<mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com>
*Subject: *Re: [geo] No fossil fuels = global warming stops “soon”
And, we are not stopping emissions yet. Even under the most
ambitious scenario (the LED scenario by Grübler, et al),
cumulative additional CO2 emissions to 2100 from fossil energy
use are over 630 Gt. Coupled with about 250 Gt of enhanced
“nature-based” removals, the result is more than a 40% increase
in the temperature anomaly we are suffering today—an increase
that persists into the 22nd century.
When one considers the pain that is being inflicted today from
extreme events (to which climate disruption is already adding),
that is a lot of additional suffering.
We have crossed into the realm of dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system. We must not trespass
further but we will. The job is to move back toward the climate
we enjoyed earlier as fast as we can.
David
Sent from my iPad
On Sep 14, 2019, at 10:45 AM, Klaus Lackner
<klaus.lack...@asu.edu <mailto:klaus.lack...@asu.edu>> wrote:
Yes, the oceans are taking on heat. But the energy
imbalance remains until the CO2 is gone. The oceans will
take up both the CO2 and the heat, but it is a slow (and
slowing) process.
*From: *Andrew Revkin <rev...@gmail.com
<mailto:rev...@gmail.com>>
*Date: *Friday, September 13, 2019 at 7:42 PM
*To: *Klaus Lackner <klaus.lack...@asu.edu
<mailto:klaus.lack...@asu.edu>>
*Cc: *"durb...@gmail.com <mailto:durb...@gmail.com>"
<durb...@gmail.com <mailto:durb...@gmail.com>>,
"geoengineering@googlegroups.com
<mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com>"
<geoengineering@googlegroups.com
<mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com>>
*Subject: *Re: [geo] No fossil fuels = global warming stops
“soon”
If we stop the energy imbalance, oceans can also go a long
way toward spreading that existing heat burden over time, as
per this Rosenthal, Linsley, Oppo work:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/342/6158/617
<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__science.sciencemag.org_content_342_6158_617&d=DwMFaQ&c=l45AxH-kUV29SRQusp9vYR0n1GycN4_2jInuKy6zbqQ&r=hFjA8A8KwwhQx5qilpfIleTL0XYVr_fckT8DnwIEWlQ&m=c5WkKQm80oGtr-ik0DfPBRt8G9lGzOp9Rc3aUa_j94M&s=GysUrJWxBv1OzAzhlNJZ5RtjBqxRsmk9ibIxV3U2Ik4&e=>
https://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/31/10000-year-study-finds-oceans-warming-fast-but-from-a-cool-baseline/
<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com_2013_10_31_10000-2Dyear-2Dstudy-2Dfinds-2Doceans-2Dwarming-2Dfast-2Dbut-2Dfrom-2Da-2Dcool-2Dbaseline_&d=DwMFaQ&c=l45AxH-kUV29SRQusp9vYR0n1GycN4_2jInuKy6zbqQ&r=hFjA8A8KwwhQx5qilpfIleTL0XYVr_fckT8DnwIEWlQ&m=c5WkKQm80oGtr-ik0DfPBRt8G9lGzOp9Rc3aUa_j94M&s=v9pklsd2w8YcGIIivLMYXTHahJdT_7PyynBwqc7wvAE&e=>
On Fri, Sep 13, 2019 at 8:16 AM Klaus Lackner
<klaus.lack...@asu.edu <mailto:klaus.lack...@asu.edu>> wrote:
If by warming you mean an increase in the temperature,
then warming will stop soon. If by warming you mean that
it is warmer than without excess Greenhouse gases, then
this excess temperature will be with us a long time.
Solomon et al claimed it is 1000 years.
Klaus
*From: *<geoengineering@googlegroups.com
<mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com>> on behalf of E
Durbrow <durb...@gmail.com <mailto:durb...@gmail.com>>
*Reply-To: *"durb...@gmail.com
<mailto:durb...@gmail.com>" <durb...@gmail.com
<mailto:durb...@gmail.com>>
*Date: *Friday, September 13, 2019 at 5:09 PM
*To: *"geoengineering@googlegroups.com
<mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com>"
<geoengineering@googlegroups.com
<mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com>>
*Subject: *[geo] No fossil fuels = global warming stops
“soon”
Alan Robock wrote: "Certainly if we stop burning fossil
fuels, global warming will not stop immediately, but it
will stop soon. “
As a layperson, my understanding is that even if fossil
fuels burning stops tomorrow, warming and acidification
will continue for decades rather than years. This is
because of 2 centuries of greenhouse gas build-up (and
greenhouse contributions from agriculture).
Would some kind soul tell me that I’m wrong here?
Thanks!
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