I concur with Neil, and even more disconcerting is the fact that the German proposal is tepid in comparison to what is necessary to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations, i.e. a reduction of 4 GtCy-1 by 2050, which is about an 80% reduction from current levels. And if we don't reach reductions of approximately 20% below current levels by 2025, we will almost invariably pass that critical 2C threshold for temperature increases in which the IPCC "burning embers" really start to seethe. Of course our own government continues its execrable ways at the meeting, simultaneously inveighing against the Chinese and Indians for not assuming commitments, while working behind the scenes to convince them not to take on such commitments. Do these guys have no shame? Well, why do I even ask?
Dr. Wil Burns Senior Fellow, International Environmental Law Santa Clara University School of Law 500 El Camino Real, Loyola 101 Santa Clara, CA 95053 USA Phone: 408.551.3000 x6139 Mobile: 650.281.9126 Fax: 408.554.2745 [EMAIL PROTECTED] SSRN Author Page: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=240348 International Environmental Law Blog: http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/intlenvironment/ From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Neil E Harrison Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2007 7:08 AM To: Radoslav Dimitrov; [EMAIL PROTECTED]; Global Environmental Education; [EMAIL PROTECTED] Cc: Chris WODSKOU; David Matthew Brock; Raphael Lencucha; rafael chichek Subject: RE: update from Bali Radoslav: An interesting take on the meeting that we outsiders don't get from other sources. I don't set much store by the German commitment: it is easy talk but means almost nothing until they translate that into real action. Given the recent implementation cock-ups in the EU on related policies including the distribution of carbon credits - a stupid idea in itself - I'm not going to hold my breath that they will reach the target or even make a good start on necessary economic and behavioral changes. Cheers, Neil -----Original Message----- From: Radoslav Dimitrov [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2007 5:08 AM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; Global Environmental Education; [EMAIL PROTECTED] Cc: Chris WODSKOU; David Matthew Brock; Raphael Lencucha; rafael chichek Subject: update from Bali Dear colleagues, Cheers from Bali! A few minutes ago, Germany's Minister received a two-minute ovation after announcing Germany's unilateral commitment to reduce emissions by 40 percent by 2050, and said that the motto of this conference should be changed from "You first" to "Me, too." I am writing from Plenary. New Zealand's Minister for Climate Change Issues just stated that New Zealand would like to see a new annex to the Kyoto Protocol that deals with deforestation. Here there is a strong push on reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). The meeting is unusually hectic and of stunning complexity. There are thirty different contact groups and informal consultations on various issues: tech transfer, adaptation, the three different post-2012 processes, etc etc. Even large delegations complain of overload and inability to follow all discussions. Some substantive updates: One success yesterday was agreement on the long awaited Adaptation Fund. 2) Failure of the talks on technology transfer (under the SBI). Many are really angry about it. 3) Still complete stalemate on key elements of the Bali Roadmap. Bitter disagreement on whether to include text on the 25-40 percent range of emission reductions by 2020. The Bali Roadmap is supposed to be on purely procedural issues of launching and organizing the post-2012 negotiations. Instead, the Europeans are fighting hard to include in the text substantive elements such as the the 25-40 % cuts. My personal view is the EU is shooting themselves in the foot: generating long fights over substance is putting the horse before the cart and poses the risk of preventing the launch of the negotiations in the first place. Canada is in a really tough spot. They cornered themselves in a very difficult negotiating position when they demanded binding commitments from developing countries AND at the same time requested special treatment and "differentiation" based on national circumstances. A lot of hype about this. People here are saying "Canada simply isn't powerful enough to be able to maintain such strong positions." The NGOs just won't let go, making Canada the laughing stock. These are only a few of the overwhelming number of issues here. Regards, Radoslav S. Dimitrov, Ph.D. Assistant Professor Department of Political Science University of Western Ontario Social Science Centre London, Ontario Canada N6A 5C2 Tel. +1(519) 661-2111 ext. 85023 Fax +1(519) 661-3904 Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
