Dear friends,

Gut-wrenching suspense in Bali at noon on Saturday. Governments are on the brink of adopting text on actions for developing countries! There had been informal agreement on it and clean text was brought to Plenary. IF adopted, this would be the very first time the G-77 (developing countries) accept the notion of "measurable, reportable and verifiable" mitigation actions by developing countries. It would be a huge success for the US and EU. These would not be any actual commitments, only an agreement to negotiate them under the Bali Roadmap. Very significant nonetheless as a milestone and a precursor for future developments.

This comes as a surprise. Insiders tell me it was India who proposed it, of all countries! Then an hour ago this morning India dropped a bombshell. All brackets had been removed and when everyone thought it a done deal, they proposed to switch words around and make finance and technology 'measurable and verifiable' - but not clearly the mitigation actions. Now intense consultations between G-77 ministers.

Here is the full original text:
"Decides to launch a comprehensive process ... including consideration of ... measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties in the context of sustainable development, supported by technology and enabled by financing and capacity building." India wants to lift the three words from the beginning and throw them at the end - thus making 'measurable, reportable and verifiable' refer to finance and technology. The US will never accept this, told me someone on the Canadian delegation.

The indicative range of 25-40 percent cuts is out of the Convention Dialogue text - but still remains, bracketed, in the AWG text. There is still time for the roadmap to collapse.

I need to leave for the airport in 20 minutes. Follow the meeting live at http://www.un.org/webcast/unfccc/

Best,

Radoslav S. Dimitrov, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
Department of Political Science
University of Western Ontario
Social Science Centre
London, Ontario
Canada N6A 5C2
Tel. +1(519) 661-2111 ext. 85023
Fax +1(519) 661-3904
Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]



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