2010/1/26 Michael Lewis <[email protected]>
> The problem is that non-linear, chaotic complex adaptive systems are being
> analyzed and interpreted as linear systems.
>
Really? Who's making that kind of misinterpretation of a complex system?
> The linear interpretation says, "If you push something hard enough, it
> will fall over."
>
If a progression contains tipping points, how can it still be linear?
> The non-linear, chaotic complex adaptive system replies, "If you push
> something hard enough, it may fall over, or it may fall toward you, or it
> may sprout wings and fly away, or it may sit there and politely ignore you."
>
Now I know you're intentionally trying to misrepresent the facts.
> Complex adaptive systems are unpredictable.
That does not follow. The complex systems were are talking about in this
group are not, in the strict meaning of the word, unpredictable. They can
certainly be hard to predict, but that does not mean that any particular
predictions are false for that reason.
> We can't predict glacier melting 200 years downstream because we can't
> know if present trends will continue.
Not by mathematical (linear) analysis alone, no of course not. But no-ody is
seriously suggesting using linear mathematical models rather than, say,
historically documented, well-understood physical forcings. If you are
suggesting such people exist, do tell.
--
/ Per
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