On Wed, 27 January, 2010 9:40 am, Phil Hays wrote:
>> > So then a small input like a little change in CO2 level or in the
>> > distribution of sunlight due to orbit change would not correlate with
>> > the climate over a long time interval. Is this a fair statement of
>> > your position? If not, please restate it.
>>
>> ... a small input like a little change in CO2 level or in the
>> distribution of sunlight due to orbit change may or may not correlate
>> with the climate over a long time interval.
> In other words, you refuse to answer the question.
The paragraph above was my answer.
> You are so sure that
> there will be no correlation between human CO2 releases and future
> climate, but still refuse to state an opinion as to if past CO2 levels
> and/or the subtle changes in heat patterns from orbital changes
> correlate with past climates over long periods of time.
I am not so prescient as to claim such surety based on our inexact
understanding of climate variability.
> If past forcing (CO2 and orbital changes) is correlated with climate,
> why will future climate not be correlated with forcing (human release of
> CO2)?
Correlation does not explain process or direction. If you are asking
me if an increase in atmospheric CO2 will always correlate with an
increase in average surface temperature, I would answer: no. If you
are asking if small changes in initial conditions will correlate with
larger climate outcomes, I would answer: sometimes.
We simply do not understand the complex interacting atmospheric and
cosmic mechanisms resulting in climate change, and, I submit, we
cannot fully understand them and predict specific outcomes.
Hayduke
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