On Wednesday 11 April 2007 18:35, Ben Scott wrote:
> On 4/11/07, Jim Kuzdrall <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > 1) 1 week before. Prior to that, people don't know their
> > schedules.
>
> I dispute that. :) I've heard from different people on different
> occasions that they would have been able to make such-and-such a
> meeting if they had had more advanced notice. Some people really do
> plan ahead. The concept is foreign to me, but I know well that "me
> != everybody".
Ah, Ben, you must apply the powerful methods of Asimov's
Psycho-history to any statement involving a group of people. That is,
the mathematics of statistics underlies my assertion.
Consider a gas, say nitrogen, in thermal equilibrium at 298 degrees
Kelvin. Do all the molecules have a thermal energy equivalent to
298deg_K? Heavens no. Some may have an energy corresponding to
1000deg_K and others may be at absolute zero. In fact,
probabilistically, there may be no molecule is at exactly at 298deg_K
energy during some rare instants.
What we can say, however, is that about half of the molecules are
below 298deg_K energy on the average.
Now, back to the competing conditions of knowing ones schedule and
being able to change it. Taking the ensemble of quasi-independent
people viewing the list and assuming their scheduling parameters fit
Gaussian statistics, there is a point where an equal number do not know
their schedules and a like number cannot change their schedules.
These groups do not necessarily comprise the whole ensemble - in
fact, it is unlikely that they do. However, they are an important
subgroup of gnhLUG and their needs are appropriately addressed as I
have suggested.
The cited divide was at 7 days, but truly my point was to introduce
these competing problems of the subgroup. Of all people, Ben, I would
have expected you to generalize the obviously statistical statement to
that conclusion.
Perhaps someone has a group psychology handbook nearby and can look
up these parameters for a typical population of IT professionals. I am
sure it has been studied. However, in lieu of more authoritative data,
you are welcome to take my studied estimate.
Jim Kuzdrall
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