On March 22, 2023 3:01:40 AM UTC, "Murray S. Kucherawy" <superu...@gmail.com> 
wrote:
>There was one prior answer to this.  Here's another.
>
>There's a claim here that the problem statement(s) is/are too vague.  I'm a
>little worried that tightening up the problem definition along these 20
>vectors will give us such a tight problem statement that any solution is so
>targeted as to be of limited value.  The sweet spot we're looking for
>probably lies somewhere in between.
>
>Gmail's auto-formatting made a mess of the numbers as I went through this,
>so sorry if that confuses things.
>
>On Fri, Feb 17, 2023 at 11:11 AM Michael Thomas <m...@mtcc.com> wrote:
>
>> I've said in multiple threads that the current problem both in the charter
>> and the problem draft are far too vague for us to address. Here are some
>> from me at least:
>>
>>    1. Who are the victims? Just bulk senders? Are the bulk senders
>>    signing using their domain?
>>
>> In my view, there are two: The receiver of the unwanted spam (that might
>not otherwise have been delivered), and the owner of the domain whose
>signature got replayed as it might now suffer a degraded reputation.
>
>>
>>    1. If there are different types of senders who suffer from replay
>>    attack reputation, are the attacks using the same or different techniques
>>    to create the signed spam?
>>
>> I haven't heard much variance in the attack technique.  It's always
>something close to this:
>
>* send something that gets signed by a large operator to a single recipient
>I control
>* capture that signed message, assuming the signature still validates
>* replay it all I want from other servers
>
>>
>>    1. Do senders filter outbound traffic for spam?
>>
>> I think it's safe to assume that the case we're most interested in does do
>this, but it seems to me that irrespective of the answer, the attack is
>working.
>
>>
>>    1. Do spammers who get a piece of email signed by a sender also send
>>    mail to target domains to see if it passes their filters?
>>
>> I would guess "yes", though perhaps not specifically as part of a replay
>campaign.  That is, they were doing this long before anyone claimed replay
>was a rising problem.
>
>>
>>    1. What are the characteristics of the spammer wrt to the sending
>>    domain? Are they brand new accounts or established ones?
>>
>> This one I don't have a guess about.  I would say "either".  Does this
>need to be known, or does it need to constrain the problem definition?
>
>>
>>    1. Do sending domains keep track of users who are sending spam in the
>>    eyes of their filters? Do they correlate that with other characteristics 
>> of
>>    their users such as freshness?
>>
>> Also "either".
>
>>
>>    1. Do senders pay any attention to the To domain?
>>
>> I can't imagine this being valuable signal, given the additional use of
>various other address fields.
>
>>
>>    1. Do receivers pay attention to the To domain(s)?
>>
>> Same.
>
>>
>>    1. Does the To domain spammers use remain more or less static, or do
>>    they mutate at a high rate?
>>
>> The "To" field, or the RCPT TO(s) in the envelope?  It seems like the To
>field (if signed) never changes, or it's whatever the spammer wants it to
>be if it's not signed.  In the latter case, it's easy to make "To" and RCPT
>TO match, thwarting that check.
>
>>
>>    1. Can we quantify the reputation bump (or hit) on the receiver from
>>    these spam bursts? (I'm sure the spammers know the answer to this)
>>
>> I imagine this is a property of the spam campaign itself and the response
>it draws, and probably varies from one receiver to the next as reputation
>is their varying secret sauce.
>
>>
>>    1. Do spammers with a replay server sign and/or set up SPF records for
>>    their spam sending domain?
>>
>> Also "either".
>
>>
>>    1. Do spammers provide an unsubscribe link which is typical on normal
>>    email blasts? If not, is that unusual and/or against the rules of the bulk
>>    provider? If so can the sender keep track of that?
>>
>> Do we need to know this to define the problem space?
>
>>
>>    1. Can senders verify that opt-out links actually work especially for
>>    new accounts?
>>
>> Same question.
>
>>
>>    1. Can filters be adjusted at a more fine grain in the face of
>>    different conditions? That is, accept a higher false positive rate in
>>    certain conditions?
>>
>> This seems to me to be part of the answer we might provide rather than
>part of the problem definition.
>
>>
>>    1. Are there receivers out there that treat an x= expired message
>>    different than a missing or broken signature? It's ambiguous in the DKIM
>>    text about that, I think.
>>
>> Right, DKIM doesn't require enforcement or even checking of "x=", other
>than if present it must be greater than the "t=" value.  OpenDKIM's library
>will consider the signature invalid and tell you this was the reason; the
>consumer is free to make whatever handling decision it wants based on
>that.  The filter is configurable.
>
>>
>>    1. Can receivers take advantage of the signalling of a small x= value
>>    as also a clue that the sender is concerned about replays?
>>
>> I don't think I've ever seen such guidance documented or implemented.
>OpenDKIM's library would let you get that value out, I believe, but that
>would be pretty advanced usage.
>
>>
>>    1. Do receivers use things like unsigned Subject or To or other
>>    tell-tale fields as signs of a bulk replay?
>>
>> I don't think they've ever been specifically associated with replay, but
>an unsigned Subject was held up even in the early DKIM days as the sort of
>thing about which a receiver might exercise its discretion to invalidate a
>signature.  The Authentication-Results RFC introduced the term "acceptable
>to the verifier" around this sort of decision tree.
>
>>
>>    1. Do receivers collect and use reputation information on mailing
>>    lists and other indirect flows that resign their messages?
>>
>> Very large ones are known to have such data.
>
>>
>>    1. What percent of incoming email to a mailbox is through resenders
>>    and of that what percent resign?
>>
>> By "resign" you mean something that has signatures from two domains,
>correct?  If so, how could one tell whether the originating operator did or
>did not attach one or more of them?
>
>>
>>    1.  Do receivers keep tabs on which users are using things like
>>    mailing lists to differentiate users who expect to get indirect mail vs
>>    those who don't?
>>
>> The large mailbox operators might have hints about this, but I'm not sure
>the answer would serve to further constrain the problem statement.

I think it relates to the largest challenge to the problem statement: what 
distinguishes these 'bad' messages from 'good' indirect mail flows such as 
mailing lists.  As far as I can tell, the answer is nothing, which leaves it 
challenging to produce an effective protocol change which addresses replay that 
doesn't also have substantial side effects on non-replay traffic.

Scott K

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